Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets - January 5, 2025

As a retired coach, I can tell you that the match-up between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets at MetLife Stadium is shaping up to be an intriguing clash of wills. If familiarity breeds contempt, there’s bound to be plenty of animosity on the field this Sunday.

The oddsmakers have opened with Miami as -2.5-point favorites, which reflects their recent form and overall performance this season. The Dolphins come into this game with a record of 8-8 straight up and 7-9 against the spread. They’ve shown resilience, particularly in their last outing where they dominated the Browns 20-3, covering as a -3-point favorite. The combined score of just 23 points indicates that Miami has been leaning toward a more conservative approach lately.

On the other hand, we have the Jets limping into this game with a dismal record of 4-12 straight up and only managing to cover five out of sixteen games against the spread. Their last performance was particularly troubling; they suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the Bills, losing 40-14 while failing to cover a +10-point spread. With an average of just over 19 points per game and inconsistent performances both offensively and defensively, it’s clear that New York has struggled mightily.

Looking deeper into team stats reveals some critical insights for this matchup. The Dolphins are averaging around 20 points per game compared to the Jets’ modest output of approximately 19 points per game. However, what stands out is Miami’s passing efficiency—boasting a completion percentage hovering near 70%, which is impressive in today’s league—and their ability to generate yardage through both air (238 yards) and ground (about 104 yards). In contrast, New York averages just under 234 passing yards but struggles significantly in rushing with only about 90 yards per game.

When it comes down to strategy on Sunday, I expect Miami’s offense to exploit New York’s weaknesses effectively. Given their ability to complete passes at such a high rate coupled with their slightly better rushing attack, it would not surprise me if we see them control time of possession throughout the game.

Defensively speaking, both teams have had their share of challenges; however, I believe Miami’s recent performance suggests they’re starting to gel as a unit. On top of that, they’ve shown an ability to keep games low-scoring—as evidenced by their last contest going under total points—so I anticipate another defensive-minded battle here.

In terms of predictions for Sunday: I foresee Miami coming away victorious against New York while also covering that small spread set by oddsmakers. Furthermore, given both teams’ recent scoring patterns and defensive capabilities, I lean towards expecting an under outcome for total points scored in this matchup.

In summary: Dolphins win; they cover; and we’re looking at an under on total points scored—setting us up for yet another chapter in this storied rivalry!