Minnesota Wild @ Ottawa Senators - February 1, 2025

As the Minnesota Wild prepare to face off against the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The oddsmakers have set the Wild as slight favorites at -102, with a total of 6.5 goals for the game. However, diving into the numbers reveals some intriguing insights that could shape our expectations for this matchup.

The Senators come into this game riding a three-game winning streak and recently triumphed over the Washington Capitals in a thrilling 5-4 contest. Their offense averages 2.72 goals per game with a shooting percentage of 9.8%. They also boast a respectable power play percentage of 22.7%, converting approximately 0.7 power play goals per game on just over three opportunities. While these offensive stats show potential, it’s worth noting that Ottawa’s overall Corsi percentage stands at 52.1%, indicating they maintain puck possession well when in the offensive zone (50.9% offensive zone percentage).

On the other hand, Minnesota is coming off an impressive 4-0 victory against Montreal as +127 underdogs, showcasing their defensive prowess with an outstanding save percentage of 90.6%. However, their offense has been slightly less prolific than Ottawa’s, averaging just under three goals per game (2.92) and generating only about 27 shots on net each outing—both lower figures compared to their opponents.

When we look at defense, it’s clear that both teams have room for improvement in terms of penalty killing; Ottawa sits at a penalty kill percentage of 78.4%, while Minnesota struggles even more at just 70.6%. This could be crucial if either team finds themselves shorthanded during key moments.

Given these statistics and current trends, I predict that Ottawa will emerge victorious in this matchup despite being slight underdogs on home ice due to their recent form and offensive capabilities—particularly considering they’ve averaged over four goals in their last few games combined with strong puck possession metrics.

However, I also foresee Minnesota covering the spread given their resilient defense and ability to limit high-scoring chances against them—especially after shutting out Montreal last time out.

In terms of scoring totals, I lean towards an UNDER outcome for this contest based on both teams’ recent trends: Minnesota has seen four of its last six games go UNDER while Ottawa has had twelve of its last fourteen matchups finish below six goals as well.

In summary: expect Ottawa to edge out Minnesota tonight while also anticipating that Minnesota covers the spread due to its defensive strengths; ultimately keeping total scoring below six goals seems likely given both teams’ tendencies lately.