AS Monaco @ Roma - February 24, 2025

As a retired coach with years of experience analyzing the ins and outs of team dynamics, I’m looking at Monday’s matchup between A.S. Roma and Monza through a lens that melds tactical insight with an understanding of how momentum shifts in the game.

A.S. Roma enters this contest riding high after their recent 1-0 victory against Parma F.C. That win, albeit narrow, provided not just a three-point reward but also vital psychological momentum that can fuel future performances, especially when one considers how teams thrive off confidence. They have a solid record of 10 wins against 7 losses and 8 draws, indicating a level of consistency that Monza simply lacks at this point in the season.

On the other hand, Monza sits at the opposite end of the spectrum with a worrying record of just 2 wins, 8 draws, and 15 losses. Their recent 0-0 draw with U.S. Lecce wasn’t exactly inspiring—while defensively it showcases potential resilience, we must ask ourselves what it does to a team’s confidence moving into a game against a larger opponent like Roma. Drawing a match where neither side found the net does not build offensive momentum.

The sportsbooks have set early betting lines fairly steep, placing Monza at +700, which speaks volumes about their perceived chances—given their struggles, it seems most analysts expect a dominant performance from Roma. The odds for a draw are at +350, highlighting a belief that Monza will likely struggle to trouble the Roma defense.

From a tactical perspective, we can expect A.S. Roma to adopt a balanced approach, leaning toward an aggressive attack while maintaining their defensive structure. They’ve proven capable of keeping games tight and may exploit Monza’s fragility by pressing high up the pitch. Given Monza’s challenges in scoring, Roma’s strategy could be something akin to what we saw earlier in the season with their 1-0 victories—one that emphasizes solid defense paired with opportunistic attacking play.

Monza needs to shift gears; this isn’t merely about trying to scrape a draw. They should be considering an attacking formation, likely to push bodies forward to snag a surprise goal. However, one must weigh the risk of overcommitting against a team that has shown it can capitalize on mistakes. Their offensive strategy must involve quick ball movement and space creation, potentially utilizing set pieces, where they can maximize opportunities with fewer risks involved.

Ultimately, I predict this match will lean heavily in favor of A.S. Roma. A scoreline of 2-0 or 3-0 feels realistic given Monza’s plight and Roma’s recent form. If Monza can tighten up their defense and find a moment of brilliance, they may steal a goal, but Roma appears poised to dominate the match as they have shown they can score from just a handful of opportunities. It’ll be a telling match for each club’s trajectory for the remainder of the season, but my gut says Roma will emerge victorious here on Monday night.