Montreal Canadiens @ Buffalo Sabres - November 11, 2024

As the Montreal Canadiens prepare to face off against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center, there are a few key trends and statistics that can help us decipher what might unfold on the ice. The oddsmakers have opened with Buffalo as -192-moneyline favorites, which reflects their current form and recent success.

The Sabres enter this matchup riding high on a three-game winning streak and showing signs of offensive prowess. They’ve averaged 3.8 goals per game while taking nearly 30 shots, boasting a shooting percentage of approximately 13.4%. Their corsi percentage of 51.5% indicates they’re controlling play effectively, leading to more opportunities in the offensive zone (49.6%). Despite having only a modest power play success rate of around 15.6%, their ability to generate chances is noteworthy.

On the other side, we have the Canadiens who are struggling significantly with a record of just 4-9-2 and currently mired in a six-game losing streak. Offensively, they’re averaging only about 2.7 goals per game with an even lower shooting percentage of roughly 11.4%. Their corsi percentage sits at a concerning 44.4%, suggesting they struggle to maintain puck possession and create quality scoring chances (45.5% offensive zone time). Although their power play has been slightly better than Buffalo’s at about 22%, it hasn’t translated into consistent results.

Defensively, both teams have shown vulnerabilities but Buffalo’s numbers stand out positively here as well; they boast an impressive save percentage of nearly 89.7% along with a penalty kill rate above average at approximately 77.6%. In contrast, Montreal’s defensive metrics reveal some weaknesses: an 87% save rate paired with an inferior penalty kill percentage of around 80%.

Given these statistics, my prediction for tonight’s game leans heavily toward Buffalo securing another victory based on their current momentum and overall performance metrics compared to Montreal’s struggles across various facets of the game.

However, when it comes to covering the spread—Montreal may be able to do just that despite being underdogs due to several factors such as desperation stemming from their losing streak or potential adjustments made by coaching staff aimed at breaking this trend.

In terms of total score predictions, I anticipate that this matchup will fall under the set line of 6.5 goals primarily because both teams’ recent scoring outputs suggest limited goal production—especially given Montreal’s ongoing offensive issues.

To summarize: expect Buffalo to claim victory over Montreal tonight; however, look for the Canadiens to cover the spread as they fight hard not only for pride but also for crucial points in what has become an increasingly challenging season thus far—all while keeping total scores low under expectations based on current form.