Montreal Canadiens @ Colorado Avalanche - January 4, 2025

As the Montreal Canadiens gear up to face the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup between two teams with contrasting recent performances. The oddsmakers have made Colorado a heavy favorite at -333, but there’s more than meets the eye when we delve into the stats.

The Avalanche come into this game riding a six-game winning streak, showcasing their offensive prowess with an average of 3.4 goals per game and a shooting percentage of 11.8%. Their ability to generate offense is evident in their power play statistics as well; they convert on approximately 23.7% of their chances, netting about 0.7 power play goals per game. With a Corsi percentage of 53.1%, they dominate possession and create opportunities in the offensive zone (52.3%).

On the flip side, Montreal has been finding its footing lately despite a rocky overall record of 17-18-3 SU. They’ve shown resilience by going 6-2 SU in their last eight games and covering the spread (ATS) in seven out of those eight contests. Offensively, they score an average of just over three goals per game with a slightly higher shooting percentage than Colorado at 12.2%. However, they struggle to keep pace with Colorado’s offensive firepower and possess only a Corsi percentage of 47.3%.

Defensively, both teams exhibit solid save percentages—Montreal slightly edges out Colorado at 88.3% compared to Colorado’s 87.7%. However, when it comes to penalty killing efficiency, Colorado lags behind at just over 76%, while Montreal boasts an impressive kill rate of approximately 82.4%.

While it may seem like an uphill battle for Montreal against such formidable opponents as indicated by their recent loss to Chicago (4-2), there are signs that suggest they could cover the spread tonight due to their strong ATS performance on the road (5-1 in last six).

Given these factors and trends, I predict that while Colorado will likely emerge victorious based on current form and home advantage, expect Montreal to give them a run for their money—enough so that they’ll manage to cover the spread.

In terms of total scoring predictions, I’m leaning towards under six goals being scored in this contest given both teams’ defensive capabilities coupled with Montreal’s tendency towards lower-scoring games recently.

To sum up: Look for Colorado to win but not without challenges from Montreal who will likely cover the spread; anticipate an underwhelming total score reflecting both teams’ defensive strengths rather than explosive offenses tonight.