Montreal Canadiens @ Florida Panthers - December 28, 2024

When the Montreal Canadiens roll into Florida to face off against the Panthers, you can bet there will be plenty of fireworks. With both teams having their share of ups and downs this season, I’m gearing up for what promises to be an intriguing matchup at Amerant Bank Arena.

Let’s break down the numbers a bit. The Panthers have been impressive on offense, averaging about 3.4 goals per game with a shooting percentage hovering around 11.6%. Their ability to generate offensive chances is bolstered by their high corsi percentage (54.7%) and a solid power play that converts at a rate of 26.3%. This suggests they know how to put pressure on opposing defenses, which bodes well for them as they come off a disappointing loss to Tampa Bay where they failed to find the net.

On the flip side, we have the Canadiens who’ve struggled offensively with only 2.9 goals per game and a shooting percentage just over 12%. While they’ve shown flashes of brilliance in recent games—going OVER in four out of their last six—their overall performance has been shaky at best, as evidenced by their recent loss against Columbus where they let in five goals.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting: even though Florida sits comfortably as -250 favorites, my gut tells me that Montreal might just surprise us tonight. They’ve covered the spread in four out of their last five games, and with them sitting at +103 underdogs lately, it feels like there’s value on their side when it comes to covering that spread.

Defensively, both teams are pretty similar with save percentages slightly favoring Florida (88.4% vs. Montreal’s 87.8%). However, Florida has had more success on the penalty kill (80.8% compared to Montreal’s 82%). If Florida can keep up their defensive discipline after getting shut out recently—and considering Montreal’s struggles—it’s likely we won’t see many goals from either side.

I’m predicting a win for Florida here; they’re simply too strong at home and have shown resilience in bouncing back from losses before—just look at their record of winning four out of five home games recently! But don’t underestimate Montreal; while I think they’ll lose outright, I believe they’ll keep it close enough to cover that spread.

As for total goals? Given both teams’ recent performances and defensive capabilities, I’m leaning towards an UNDER outcome tonight despite the high opening total set at 7.5. The Panthers may find themselves stifled after last week’s shutout and could struggle again against a Canadiens team looking for redemption after letting in five against Columbus.

So here’s my final call: Florida wins but Montreal covers the spread; expect this one to stay UNDER as both teams try to tighten things up defensively after some rough outings lately!