Newcastle United @ Everton - October 5, 2024

As we gear up for the clash between Everton FC and Newcastle United this Saturday, it’s important to dive into the stats to decipher what we might expect. The two sides are on opposite trajectories in the English Premier League, with Newcastle currently occupying 7th place and coming off a respectable record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. In contrast, Everton languishes in 15th, with only a single win to their name against 4 losses, sporting an overall record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 defeats.

It’s interesting to note that Everton’s last outing ended favorably for them as they managed to secure a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace. However, that was just one performance in a sea of struggles. They have only averaged 1 goal per game while only managing 10 shots with about 2.2 of those on target. Their passing accuracy stands at 74.7%, a figure that, while not terrible, certainly does not inspire confidence when facing a mid-table rival like Newcastle.

In juxtaposition, we have the stronger attack of Newcastle United, who boast an impressive scoring average of 1.3 goals per game. They’ve produced 11 shots with about 3.8 being on target, showcasing a sharper offense compared to Everton’s. Their passing accuracy is slightly better at 77.0% and they have managed fewer fouls committed at approximately 11.2 per game. All of this suggests that Newcastle has a more refined and effective attacking unit, which points toward a potential advantage in this matchup.

When predicting the outcome, I’d lean heavily in favor of Newcastle. The odds currently favor them at -118, and given their ability to convert chances into goals, they appear better positioned to capitalize on Everton’s defensive vulnerabilities. Not to mention, Everton’s trend of struggling to find the net consistently plays into Newcastle’s hands.

Scoring trends also suggest this matchup might lean towards a high total. With Everton’s recent game resulting in 3 total goals and Newcastle’s last match ending with 2, there is a strong suggestion that can oppress OVER bettors. The attacking prowess of Newcastle should make it relatively easy for them to find the net against a defense that has already shown cracks this season.

Given the stats, I would expect the game to stand in favor of Newcastle with a score projection around 2-0 or 2-1. Everton will need to step up significantly if they hope to secure a result here. However, with their current form showcasing limitations in both attacking conversion and defensive solidity, it’s hard to see them being anything but a team fighting to contain the Newcastle offense rather than one matching them.

In summary, Newcastle United stands to emerge victorious this Saturday, scoring a couple of goals and potentially sending the UNDER bettors home. If you’re considering a draw, I’d think again, as the odds currently do not favor a stalemate, and my prediction looks towards a Newcastle win with a rather enjoyable OVER total as the cherry on top.