New Jersey Devils @ Vegas Golden Knights - March 2, 2025

As we approach Sunday’s clash between the New Jersey Devils and the Vegas Golden Knights at T-Mobile Arena, a few key dynamics stand out. With both teams looking to build momentum, this matchup promises to be both thrilling and telling of their respective playoff aspirations.

The Golden Knights, entering this game as -145 favorites according to oddsmakers, have showcased a potent offensive presence this season. They average over 3.3 goals per game with an impressive shooting percentage hovering around 11%. Their ability to dominate possession is illustrated by their corsi percentage of 51.5%, coupled with a favorable offensive zone percentage of 55.5%. However, it’s worth noting that despite their strengths, they’ve struggled against the spread recently—going just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.

On the other hand, the Devils have been somewhat inconsistent on the road but are coming off a solid win against the Hockey Club. With an average of just over 3 goals per game and a slightly lower shooting percentage than Vegas at about 10.8%, they still find ways to score when it counts, particularly on power plays where they convert nearly 27% of opportunities. Their recent trend of going under in five of their last seven contests further hints at their defensive prowess; they boast a strong save percentage at over 90% and an excellent penalty kill rate approaching 84%. These stats highlight that while New Jersey can score when needed, they also prioritize shutting down opposing offenses effectively.

Looking back at my coaching experience, I’ve always emphasized how crucial it is for teams to capitalize on special teams play—this could very well decide today’s outcome as both teams hover around similar power-play percentages. The Golden Knights are riding high after putting up seven goals against Chicago in their last outing, but facing off against New Jersey’s disciplined defense will pose quite a different challenge.

With the current trends indicating that New Jersey has performed better under pressure recently—even covering spreads against tougher opponents—I predict that they’ll put forth an effort capable of surprising many tonight. Their road struggles could be mitigated by strong goaltending and disciplined defensive play which has kept games tight.

Additionally, if you consider how tightly contested many games tend to become late in the season—as players dig deeper for wins—the potential for this game hitting under seems plausible given both defenses’ capability to stymie opposing attacks effectively.

In summary: I foresee New Jersey edging out Vegas today while covering the spread—a triumph fueled by disciplined defense and timely scoring on power plays amidst an environment ripe for playoff contention excitement. Given all factors considered, expect today’s total score to lean towards being under as both teams will likely exhibit caution rather than aggression as they seek crucial points moving forward into March’s final stretch.