Nottingham Forest @ Everton - December 29, 2024

As the Premier League clash approaches this Sunday, the anticipation is palpable. Everton FC welcomes Nottingham Forest for what promises to be an intriguing encounter, full of implications not just for league standings but also for the fans. Both clubs are vying for pride—Everton, currently in 16th place, is hoping to claw their way out of the relegation battle, while Nottingham Forest enjoys a relatively comfortable position in 4th.

To understand what to expect from this game, let’s break down the statistics. Nottingham Forest comes into this match with an impressive record of 10-4-4. They’ve been scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game (rounded to one decimal) and taking approximately 13.2 shots per match. Of those efforts, around 4.6 land on target, which showcases their ability to convert chances effectively.

Everton, on the other hand, has struggled, boasting a record of 3-8-6. They currently score an average of 0.8 goals per match, with around 11.4 shots taken, but only about 3.3 of those shots find their way on target. This significantly lower conversion rate could spell trouble against a sharp Nottingham Forest side.

Possession and passing accuracy also offer valuable insights. Both teams maintain a decent passing percentage, with Everton slightly ahead at 75.5% compared to Nottingham’s 74.8%. However, it’s important to note that both clubs are known for a disciplined style of play, averaging around 11 fouls per match. This indicates a potential for a tightly contested game, where neither team may not want to give away free chances in dangerous areas.

Given their previous matchups, the recent form of Nottingham Forest is particularly noteworthy. Coming off a narrow 1-0 win against a formidable Tottenham Hotspur, they will likely carry momentum into this match. On the flip side, Everton enters following a 1-1 stalemate against Manchester City, which—although not a defeat—wasn’t the morale-boosting victory they needed either.

As the odds reflect, there appears to be a strong expectation from bettors leaning towards Nottingham Forest—the odds for a draw opened at 240, while Forest’s win was listed at 162 and Everton’s at 160. This suggests that while Everton is considered slightly more favorable than the draw, the statistics certainly tilt the scale in Nottingham’s direction.

Considering the data, my predictive model leans heavily towards a Nottingham Forest victory, likely with a low scoreline allowing UNDER bettors to rejoice once again. Given the averages—combined with Everton’s offensive struggles and Nottingham’s defensive prowess—it feels reasonable to forecast a game under the total goals. A likely ending could see Nottingham Forest taking a 1-0 or perhaps even a 2-0 victory, as they aim to solidify their spot in the top four while further complicating Everton’s season. The potential for both teams to play cautiously leads me to believe this is a game for the UNDER.

In summary, expect Nottingham to leave Goodison Park with three vital points and potentially a well-earned clean sheet.