New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics - January 12, 2025

As I reflect on the upcoming matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Boston Celtics at TD Garden, it’s clear that fans are in for a compelling contest. With the Celtics entering this game as heavy favorites, there’s a lot to unpack when we consider recent performances and statistical trends.

The Celtics are coming off a disappointing loss against the Kings where they fell short of expectations, failing to cover a sizeable spread as favorites. Nevertheless, their overall record of 27-11 indicates that they are indeed one of the stronger teams in the league. Offensively, they’re averaging about 119 points per game with an impressive shooting percentage hovering around 46%. Their ability to shoot from deep at over 36% can stretch defenses and open up lanes for scoring opportunities.

Defensively, Boston boasts solid rebounding numbers and is particularly effective at creating turnovers; they’re winning nearly eight steals per game. However, they do struggle slightly with fouls—averaging over 16 per game—which can be exploited by opponents who know how to draw contact effectively. The tendency to foul could play a significant role if this game remains close and forces key players into foul trouble.

On the other hand, we have the Pelicans, who have had their fair share of struggles this season with an overall record of just 8-31. They come into this match after a morale-boosting victory against Philadelphia; however, consistency has been elusive for them. While they’ve managed to score around 107 points per outing on less-than-stellar shooting percentages (44%), their offensive rhythm can sometimes be hampered by turnovers—nearly 15 lost possessions each game is not ideal.

What stands out most about New Orleans’ recent form is their offense hitting overs in seven of their last ten games. This suggests that while they may not always win or cover spreads consistently, they can engage in high-scoring affairs when needed. However, defensively they’ve allowed opponents to exploit them too often; averaging nearly 18 fouls per game hints at potential weaknesses when facing more aggressive offenses like Boston’s.

Considering all factors leading up to Sunday’s match-up—the Pelicans’ inconsistent form versus Boston’s strong home advantage—it feels likely that we’ll see the Celtics bounce back decisively from their previous defeat. The expectation here is for Boston not only to win but also cover the substantial -14 point spread comfortably.

In terms of total points scored during this game, while both teams have seen some higher-scoring outings recently, I would lean towards an UNDER outcome based on Boston’s recent defensive adjustments and New Orleans’ difficulties finding consistent offensive flow throughout games.

So my predictions? A solid victory for the Celtics covering that hefty spread while keeping total points under what oddsmakers set at 224.5 seems quite plausible given these dynamics at play tonight in TD Garden.