New Orleans Pelicans @ Indiana Pacers - December 15, 2024

As the New Orleans Pelicans prepare to face off against the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, they find themselves in a precarious position. The Pelicans are currently riding a three-game losing streak and have only managed to win once in their last 13 games. Their record stands at 5-21 straight up (SU) and 10-16 against the spread (ATS), which tells us they’ve struggled significantly this season.

On the flip side, we have the Indiana Pacers, who come into this matchup with an 11-15 SU record and a slightly disappointing 9-16-1 ATS. While both teams share some common struggles—namely, inconsistency—the Pacers appear to be in better form overall. They recently secured a solid victory over the Philadelphia 76ers, covering as +6.5-point underdogs while racking up an impressive total score of 121 points.

When it comes to offensive efficiency, the Pacers outshine the Pelicans considerably. Indiana averages around 114 points per game on an efficient shooting percentage of approximately 48.6%. They also excel from beyond the arc with a respectable shooting rate of about 37.1%. In contrast, New Orleans lags behind with just over 105 points per game and a field goal percentage that hovers around 43.9%. Their struggles extend to three-point shooting as well, where they convert only about 33% of their attempts.

Defensively, both teams exhibit different strengths and weaknesses. The Pelicans average more total rebounds per game (43) compared to Indiana’s (39.7), but it’s worth noting that both teams commit similar fouls per game—around 18 for New Orleans and slightly higher at about 20 for Indiana. The Pacers do struggle with turnovers; they lose roughly 15 per game compared to New Orleans’ slightly lower figure of around that same number.

Despite these statistics leaning toward Indiana’s favor offensively—and even though both teams have shown tendencies toward high-scoring games recently—the trend suggests otherwise for this specific matchup based on recent performances.

Considering all factors: team records, offensive capabilities, defensive metrics, and current trends—it seems likely that the Pacers will not only win but cover the -5.5-point spread set by oddsmakers as well. Moreover, given that both teams are coming off games where totals were either close or exceeded expectations recently (the last outing for each saw scores above or near their averages), I anticipate that this contest will remain under the projected total of 223 points due to New Orleans’ ongoing scoring difficulties.

In summary: expect an Indiana victory tonight where they’ll cover the spread comfortably while keeping things tight enough defensively to keep this one under its total line.