New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves - March 19, 2025

It’s that time of year again, folks! The NBA action is heating up, and tonight we’re looking at a juicy matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now, if you’ve been following my betting rituals, you know I’m not one to shy away from a big spread when there’s value on the table. And tonight? We’ve got one heck of a situation brewing.

The Timberwolves come into this game as solid -13-point favorites after their last outing ended in heartbreak against the Pacers—losing 132-130 despite being favored by 10.5 points. They certainly haven’t been flawless, but what stands out is their recent form; they’ve won 8 of their last 9 games and covered the spread in 6 of those contests. Their offensive stats are nothing to scoff at either: scoring an average of about 113.1 points per game with a shooting percentage hovering around 46.5%. With an impressive three-point shooting rate of nearly 38%, they can light it up from beyond the arc.

On the flip side, we have the struggling Pelicans who have lost three straight games and only managed to cover a dismal two out of ten spreads recently. Their last outing was an embarrassing defeat against the Pistons (127-81), where they failed to even come close to covering a +6-point spread as underdogs. With only around 110.8 points scored per game and a field goal percentage just under 45%, they’re having trouble finding consistency on offense.

Now, let’s talk defense for a moment because both teams have shown some grit in that department. The Timberwolves average about 44 rebounds per game with decent steal numbers, while New Orleans isn’t far behind on rebounds and actually excels slightly in steals per game (with about 8.8). However, with Minnesota’s recent form combined with New Orleans’ struggles, I see no reason why we shouldn’t expect Minnesota to control both ends of the floor effectively.

So what can we expect as these two meet at Target Center? I’m feeling confident that Minnesota will not only win but also cover that hefty -13-point spread tonight. After all, when you look at how New Orleans has performed lately—1-7 SU in their last eight games—it paints quite the picture for us seasoned bettors.

As for that total set at 226.5? Given both teams’ tendencies to score—especially Minnesota—and considering how defensive lapses can lead to high-scoring affairs when things get heated late in games like this one, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see this total go OVER tonight.

In summary: Timberwolves take it home with authority while covering the spread comfortably; keep an eye on that total—it could very well surpass expectations! And remember—never underestimate good luck charms; maybe wear your lucky socks or sip your favorite drink during tip-off tonight; every little bit helps! Happy betting!