New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys - September 15, 2024

As a former sports statistician with a love for the game, I always dive deep into the numbers to unearth trends that might escape the average fan’s eye. As we gear up for Sunday’s encounter between the New Orleans Saints and the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, the statistics present an intriguing picture that hints at how this matchup might unfold.

The Cowboys come into the game riding high from their 33-17 victory against the Browns. Statistically speaking, Dallas has put up an impressive average of 33 points per game this season, showcasing a balanced offensive approach with 179 passing yards and 102 rushing yards. Their completion rate stands at 59.4%, which, while not astronomical, reflects a team that can move the ball effectively. They also generate 5.6 yards per attempt on the ground, indicative of a solid running attack.

On the flip side, the New Orleans Saints are also off to a blistering start, averaging 47 points per game following their dominant 47-10 victory over the Panthers. Their passing game has been exceptionally efficient, with a completion percentage soaring at 79.2% and averaging 200 yards per game. Their rushing statistics are noteworthy as well, averaging 180 rushing yards per game at an impressive 8.3 yards per attempt. This offensive firepower makes the Saints a formidable opponent, and it’s no surprise that they are just a 6.5-point underdog in this matchup.

When analyzing the spread, it becomes clear that while the Cowboys may be favorites, the Saints’ recent form and offensive capabilities suggest they will keep the game close. The Saints have displayed a trend of strong performance against the spread, going 5-1 over their last six contests. Conversely, Dallas has had mixed results at covering the spread, with a 2-4 mark in their last six. This combination of factors leads me to predict that the Saints will not only cover the spread but will likely put up a valiant fight throughout the game.

As for the over/under, with such high-scoring averages on both sides, one might expect a shootout. However, historical trends suggest that games involving the Saints are not always guaranteed to eclipse the totals set by oddsmakers. The total score has gone under in 17 of New Orleans’s last 24 games, and given the defensive discipline that both teams have shown early in the season, the projection could lean towards the under once again.

In conclusion, I predict a competitive game with the Cowboys likely walking away with a victory based on their solid offensive output. However, the Saints will cover the spread, bringing the game within reach. Additionally, expect the total score to remain under the 44.5 mark, as defensive tactics increasingly become a focal point in what promises to be an exciting NFL clash.