New York Islanders @ Tampa Bay Lightning - March 29, 2025

As we gear up for the matchup between the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena, there’s plenty to unpack. The oddsmakers have set the Lightning as -149 favorites, reflecting their strong performance of late. After a dominant 8-0 victory over the Hockey Club in their last home game, it’s clear that Tampa Bay is riding high on confidence and offensive momentum.

When we look at the numbers, Tampa Bay’s offense is impressive, averaging approximately 3.5 goals per game with a shooting percentage of nearly 12.6%. They also boast a solid power play success rate of about 26%, scoring roughly 0.73 goals per game while having nearly three chances on average. This efficiency will be crucial against an Islanders team that has struggled defensively, particularly on special teams with a penalty kill percentage sitting at just over 72%.

The Islanders are currently facing challenges of their own; they’ve lost three straight games and only managed to score around 2.7 goals per game this season with a shooting percentage hovering around 9.7%. Their power play struggles further compound their issues—averaging only about 0.30 goals per game with a mere 12% conversion rate.

Defensively, Tampa Bay shines brighter than New York does; they maintain an impressive save percentage of around 90.6% compared to the Islanders’ lower mark of approximately 89.6%. This disparity could prove pivotal as both teams vie for control during key moments in the game.

Given these statistics and trends leading into Saturday night’s contest, I predict that Tampa Bay will emerge victorious once again against New York. However, it’s important to note that while I expect Tampa to win outright, the odds suggest that New York may cover the spread due to their underdog status—if they can keep it close or pull off an upset.

In terms of total scoring predictions, I’m leaning towards an under outcome for this matchup despite both teams showing tendencies towards higher-scoring games recently (the Isles have gone OVER in five consecutive contests). Given Tampa’s defensive capabilities combined with New York’s offensive struggles and low power-play efficiency rates, I foresee a tighter battle than anticipated.

So as fans settle into their seats at Amalie Arena, expect some fireworks from Tampa Bay’s offense but don’t count out New York entirely—they may just surprise us by keeping things competitive enough to cover that spread!