New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers - October 20, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I relish the opportunity to break down the upcoming matchup between the New York Jets and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday. As the odds suggest, the Jets are slight favorites, opening at -1. However, based on the statistical trends, the Steelers seem better positioned for a victory.

Let’s delve deeper into the numbers. The Jets come into this game with a disappointing record of 2-4, and their recent performance indicates a team struggling to find its rhythm. They’ve lost three straight games and have an ATS record that shows they’re just 4-12-1 against the spread in their last 17 games. Their last outing was a 23-20 loss against the Bills, where they failed to cover the +1-point spread.

In contrast, the Steelers are riding high with a 4-2 record, including a convincing 32-13 win over the Raiders in their last match. This victory allowed them to cover the -3.5-point spread, and with a 7-3 mark against the spread in their last 10 games, it’s clear that they are finding ways to outperform expectations. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s games are showing a trend of hitting the UNDER, with four of their last six games not surpassing the total points.

Looking at the average points scored per game, the Steelers sit at 20.7, while the Jets average just 18.8 points. While the Jets may have a slight edge in passing yardage, averaging 237.2 yards compared to Pittsburgh’s 187.5 yards, the Steelers offer a more balanced offensive game with the rush averaging 131.5 yards per game, whereas the Jets lag behind at 87.2 yards rushing. This rushing differential is critical, as it indicates that Pittsburgh can control the game’s pace while effectively running the ball.

Given these statistics, it’s reasonable to predict that the Steelers will be able to cover the spread on Sunday. Not only are they more adept at scoring points and controlling the ground game, but they also have managed to find ways to win against the spread while the Jets struggle.

Expect this game to trend toward the UNDER, given that the Steelers’ offensive output doesn’t often lead to high-scoring affairs. With the teams averaging a combined total of 39.5 points based on their performances, it will be challenging for this matchup to eclipse the total of 43.5.

In conclusion, my predictions for this game align with the data: the Pittsburgh Steelers will likely secure a victory against the New York Jets while covering the spread. Furthermore, I anticipate that the total will stay UNDER the set line, reflecting the ongoing trend in Pittsburgh’s recent games. This matchup should be an interesting blend of strategy and execution, with the numbers firmly supporting the Steel City’s side.