New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers - April 14, 2025

As the New York Rangers head to Amerant Bank Arena to face off against the Florida Panthers, there’s plenty of data at our disposal to break down what we might expect from this matchup. The Panthers enter as -149 moneyline favorites, and given their recent form, it’s easy to see why.

Florida has been on a roll lately, winning three straight games and boasting a solid record of 47-29-4. Their offensive stats reveal they average 3.038 goals per game with a shooting percentage of about 9.9%. They take an impressive 31.6 shots per game while maintaining a corsi percentage of 56.4%, indicating they control play effectively when on the ice. Their offensive zone percentage stands at nearly 56.9%, which speaks volumes about their ability to generate chances in high-scoring areas.

On special teams, Florida has also shown promise with a power play conversion rate of approximately 23.7%. They score around 0.7 power-play goals per game from just under three opportunities, making them a dangerous team when they draw penalties.

Conversely, the Rangers have struggled recently with only one win in their last six games (1-5 ATS). With an overall record of 37-36-7, they’re hovering right around .500 and desperately need to turn things around if they hope for playoff contention. Offensively, New York averages slightly more goals than Florida at about 3.1 per game but does so with fewer shots (28.7) and a lower shooting percentage (11%). Their corsi percentage is also lower at roughly 50.4%, suggesting that they’re not controlling play as well as their opponents.

Defensively, both teams are relatively close in terms of save percentages; Florida’s is marginally better at 89.8% compared to New York’s 89.5%. However, when it comes to penalty killing efficiency, Florida edges out again with an 80.6% kill rate versus New York’s slightly less effective mark of 80.3%.

Given these statistics and trends leading into Monday’s matchup, I predict that the Panthers will secure a victory against the Rangers due primarily to their current form and superior offensive metrics combined with solid goaltending performance.

However, I believe that New York will manage to cover the spread despite being underdogs in this contest due to their higher scoring potential—especially considering how both teams’ recent games have trended towards higher totals overall; yet tonight’s total opened at just 5.5.

Thus my final predictions: Florida wins but New York covers the spread while I anticipate that total points scored will remain UNDER given both teams’ recent defensive displays coupled with fluctuating offensive outputs relative to expectations set by oddsmakers.