Oakland Athletics @ Chicago Cubs - September 16, 2024

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen my fair share of matchups that make you question everything you thought you knew. Today, we’ve got the Oakland Athletics rolling into Wrigley Field for a showdown with the Chicago Cubs. Now, let’s break this down and see where we can find some value.

First off, we’ve got Joey Estes taking the mound for Oakland. He’s sitting at a 7-7 record with an ERA hovering around 4.4. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. The kid has shown some flashes of potential with nearly 8 strikeouts per game, but consistency is key in this league. On the other side of the diamond is Shota Imanaga for the Cubs, boasting an impressive 13-3 record and a solid ERA just above 3.0. He’s been a workhorse for Chicago and clearly has the upper hand in this matchup.

Now let’s talk about streaks—both teams are struggling right now; Chicago has dropped three straight games, while Oakland comes off a close loss to Chicago’s rival White Sox. You know what they say about teams on losing streaks: they’re desperate for wins which can sometimes lead to unexpected performances. But in this case, I think the Cubs have too much talent on their side to overlook.

When it comes to batting stats, both teams are averaging just over four runs per game—Cubs at 4.6 and Athletics at 4.0—but it’s worth noting that Chicago has better overall numbers in hits and RBIs as well as a slightly better batting average and on-base percentage. They have been more productive at getting runners across home plate despite recent struggles.

Betting markets opened with the Cubs favored at -190 against Oakland’s +175 moneyline, which makes sense given their pitching advantage and home-field benefit at Wrigley Field—a place notorious for its unique quirks that can catch even seasoned hitters off guard.

But here’s where it gets interesting: oddsmakers set the total at 7.5 runs tonight—given both pitchers’ recent form and their respective ERAs—I’m leaning toward betting under on this one. With Imanaga’s ability to keep runs off the board coupled with Estes trying to prove himself against a tough lineup, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see something low-scoring tonight.

So here’s my prediction: I’m betting on the Cubs to secure a victory tonight while keeping that total under 7.5 runs scored collectively by both teams. It might sound like playing it safe—especially when you consider how unpredictable baseball can be—but sometimes you’ve got to stick with what works when you’re looking for value through consistent play.

And remember my little superstition? Always wear your lucky cap during these bets! You never know when those good vibes will turn into cash flow! Let’s get ready to cash in tonight folks; may our bets be ever in our favor!