Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres - November 5, 2024

As the Ottawa Senators prepare to face off against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center, there are several key factors and trends that suggest a favorable outcome for Ottawa. Oddsmakers have set the Sabres as slight favorites at -128, but I believe that the Senators will not only win this matchup but also cover the spread.

Starting with offensive performance, the Senators have been impressive this season, averaging 3.8 goals per game with a shooting percentage of 12.2%. They generate 31.5 shots on goal per game, which indicates a consistent ability to create scoring opportunities. In contrast, Buffalo’s offense has struggled somewhat, managing only 3.4 goals per game and an underwhelming power play percentage of just 8.6%. This disparity in offensive efficiency could be pivotal in determining the outcome of tonight’s game.

When it comes to special teams, Ottawa boasts an exceptional power play conversion rate of 33.3%, netting over one power play goal per game on average. Conversely, Buffalo’s power play is languishing at just 0.3 goals per game and ranks among the lowest in the league with an 8.6% success rate on their man advantages. This suggests that if either team has opportunities to capitalize on special teams situations tonight, it will likely be Ottawa.

Defensively, both teams have their strengths; however, Ottawa edges out slightly with a higher save percentage of 89.2% compared to Buffalo’s 88.3%. While both teams have allowed their share of goals against—Buffalo yielding more than they would like—the Senators’ penalty kill stands out at 77.4%, indicating they can effectively manage opposing threats when shorthanded.

In terms of recent form, Ottawa enters this matchup riding high after a convincing home victory against Seattle (3-0), while Buffalo is struggling with three consecutive losses—including a tight contest where they fell short against Detroit (2-1). The momentum shift favors Ottawa significantly here; they’ve gone an impressive 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and seem well-positioned to continue that trend.

Moreover, it’s worth noting that historically speaking, divisional matchups often lead to tighter contests where underdogs can surprise—however given current data points and performance metrics favoring Ottawa across multiple categories including scoring output and special teams efficiency—I predict that not only will Ottawa secure victory but also push past the total set at 6.5 for this matchup.

To summarize: expect an energetic clash where Ottawa capitalizes on its superior offensive capabilities while taking advantage of any special teams chances presented by Buffalo’s struggles in that area. With all signs pointing toward an upset from what oddsmakers project as a close contest—Ottawa should take this one decisively while covering the spread comfortably and pushing towards an OVER result for total goals scored tonight.