Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres - March 25, 2025

As the Ottawa Senators prepare to face off against the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center, there are several key trends and statistics that suggest a favorable outcome for Ottawa. The oddsmakers have opened with the Senators as -161 moneyline favorites, which aligns well with their recent performance.

Starting with Ottawa, they come into this game boasting a solid record of 37-27-5. They’ve been playing well lately, going 4-2 against the spread in their last six games and winning seven out of their last nine matchups. Notably, they’ve shown an ability to score more than usual recently, with the total going OVER in 14 of their last 19 games. Their offensive stats reflect a team capable of generating opportunities; they average about 2.9 goals per game on roughly 29 shots with a shooting percentage just over 10%. Additionally, they excel on special teams with a power play conversion rate of nearly 24%, scoring about three-quarters of a goal per game on those chances.

On the defensive side, Ottawa has been impressive as well. They maintain an excellent save percentage at nearly 90% and have effectively killed penalties at a rate of 77%. This combination suggests that not only can they score when needed but also limit opponents’ scoring opportunities.

Conversely, Buffalo enters this contest struggling overall with a record of 28-35-6. Their last outing was promising—a win against Winnipeg—but prior to that victory, they had lost four out of five games against the spread in their previous matches. Offensively, while Buffalo averages about 3.1 goals per game—which is slightly higher than Ottawa’s output—they’ve also faced challenges converting chances into goals efficiently; their shooting percentage hovers around 11.7%. Furthermore, their power play struggles continue to plague them as they convert just under 18% of opportunities into goals.

Defensively, Buffalo’s numbers are concerning: they allow opponents to capitalize on nearly every tenth shot taken at them (87.8% save percentage) and struggle even more when down a man—killing penalties only about 77% of the time.

Given these statistics and trends leading up to this matchup, I predict that Ottawa will emerge victorious tonight while covering the spread as favorites. The Senators’ balanced attack combined with robust defensive metrics should be enough to stifle any momentum from Buffalo’s offense.

Regarding the total for this matchup set at over/under of 6.5 goals: considering both teams’ recent performances and tendencies toward lower-scoring affairs (especially given Ottawa’s strong defense), I anticipate that this game will likely fall below that threshold—making it prudent for bettors looking towards an UNDER outcome tonight.

In summary: expect an Ottawa win covering the spread while keeping total goals scored under what oddsmakers have projected.