Ottawa Senators @ Calgary Flames - December 19, 2024

As the Ottawa Senators and Calgary Flames prepare to clash at Scotiabank Saddledome, there are several compelling factors that suggest this matchup will favor the Senators. With both teams looking for a crucial win, let’s break down the numbers to see what we can expect.

First off, the Senators come into this game riding a four-game winning streak, showcasing their ability to find ways to win in various scenarios. Their recent 3-0 victory against the Kraken demonstrates solid defensive play and an efficient offense that has been scoring an average of 3.1 goals per game. In contrast, the Flames have struggled offensively, averaging just 2.6 goals per game and coming off a narrow 4-3 loss to the Bruins where they allowed more than their usual share of goals.

When it comes to shooting efficiency, Ottawa holds a slight edge with a shooting percentage of approximately 10.7% compared to Calgary’s 9%. This difference could be pivotal in determining which team capitalizes on its chances tonight. Additionally, Ottawa’s offensive zone presence is quite comparable with both teams hovering around the same percentage; however, Ottawa has shown greater effectiveness in converting power-play opportunities with a conversion rate of nearly 25.7%, while Calgary lags behind at about 20.9%.

Defensively, both teams have identical save percentages at around 89.7%, but Ottawa outshines Calgary when it comes to penalty killing—77.27% compared to Calgary’s struggling rate of just 71.88%. If penalties become a factor in this match-up (and they often do), expect Ottawa’s superior penalty kill performance to give them an advantage.

From a betting perspective, oddsmakers opened with Calgary as slight favorites at -123; however, given Ottawa’s current form and their ability to score efficiently while playing sound defense, I predict that they will not only cover the spread but also secure victory as underdogs tonight.

In terms of total scoring predictions for this matchup, considering both teams’ recent performances—Calgary allowing over three goals per game lately and Ottawa’s capacity for limiting opponent scoring—it’s reasonable to anticipate that this contest may fall below the set total of 5.5 goals.

In summary:
– Prediction: **Ottawa wins**
– Spread: **Ottawa covers**
– Total: **Under**

With these insights grounded firmly in data analysis rather than mere speculation or popular opinion, I believe we’re set up for an exciting evening where trends point towards an upset by the Senators over their rivals from Calgary.