Ottawa Senators @ Dallas Stars - January 2, 2025

As we gear up for the matchup between the Ottawa Senators and Dallas Stars at the American Airlines Center, let’s dive into some of the key stats and trends that could influence the outcome of this game.

The Dallas Stars enter this contest with a solid overall record of 22-13-1. Their offense has been productive, averaging approximately 3.2 goals per game on 31 shots, boasting a shooting percentage of around 10.8%. They have demonstrated an ability to control play with a Corsi percentage of nearly 55%, indicating they often dictate puck possession. However, their power play has struggled somewhat, converting just over 15% of their chances.

On the defensive side, Dallas is performing admirably as well, with a save percentage of about 90.4% and an impressive penalty kill rate at roughly 84.7%. This combination makes them formidable opponents when trying to score in all situations.

Conversely, the Ottawa Senators come into this game with a record of 19-15-2. Their offensive production is slightly lower than Dallas’s, averaging about 3.1 goals per game on around 30 shots with a shooting percentage close to 10.7%. The Senators have shown resilience lately by winning seven out of their last nine games; however, they’ve struggled against the spread (ATS), going just 6-15 in their last twenty-one contests.

Defensively, Ottawa has not been as robust as Dallas; they allow more goals due to a save percentage hovering around 89.7% and a penalty kill rate below that at approximately 77.5%. These figures suggest that while they can score effectively on occasion—especially given their strong power play conversion rate of about 25%—they may find it challenging to keep high-scoring teams like Dallas at bay.

Given these statistics and recent performances, I predict that while Dallas will likely secure the win tonight due to their superior overall metrics and home advantage (noting they recently beat Buffalo), I believe Ottawa will manage to cover the spread as underdogs based on their current form and competitive spirit.

In terms of scoring expectations for this matchup, I lean towards an UNDER outcome given both teams’ tendencies lately—the Stars have seen ten out of fourteen games go UNDER total points while Ottawa has also trended towards lower-scoring affairs recently (with six out of eight games hitting UNDER).

In summary: I anticipate Dallas securing victory but expect Ottawa to cover the spread due to their recent form; additionally, look for an UNDER result in total points scored during this encounter based on both teams’ statistical trends leading into Thursday night’s clash.