Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders - January 24, 2025

As the Philadelphia Flyers prepare to face off against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, there’s an air of anticipation surrounding this matchup. Given both teams’ recent performances and underlying stats, we can expect a competitive game with plenty of implications for their respective seasons.

The oddsmakers have set the Islanders as -123 moneyline favorites, but let’s dive deeper into the numbers to see if that line holds any merit. The Islanders come into this game with a record of 17-19-7, and while they’ve shown flashes of resilience—going 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games—they’ve struggled overall. Their offensive stats reveal a team that averages only 2.7 goals per game on roughly 29 shots, translating to a shooting percentage just shy of 10%. This lackluster offensive output is compounded by their power play success rate of only 12.5%, which ranks among the lower tiers in the league.

On the defensive side, while they boast an impressive save percentage at 89.4%, their penalty kill percentage sits at a troubling 67.68%. This suggests that when opponents get opportunities with the man advantage, they often capitalize—a critical factor considering Philadelphia’s own power play has been more effective than New York’s at 16.1%.

The Flyers enter this contest with a slightly better record at 19-20-6 and have shown some promise lately, going 5-2 SU in their last seven games. Offensively, Philadelphia averages over three goals per game and maintains a solid shooting percentage above 11%. They also generate more scoring chances than the Islanders do on average, making them more dangerous offensively.

Defensively, however, they have room for improvement with an overall save percentage of just under 87% and a penalty kill success rate significantly better than New York’s at around 77%. This could be crucial as both teams will likely rely heavily on special teams to swing momentum.

Given these trends and statistics leading up to Friday night’s clash, I predict that Philadelphia will emerge victorious over New York. The Flyers are not only capable of covering the spread but may also limit scoring opportunities enough to keep total goals under what oddsmakers have set at 6.5.

In summary: expect Philadelphia to take advantage of New York’s struggles both offensively and defensively while leveraging their stronger power play unit to secure key moments in this matchup. If familiarity breeds contempt as suggested by history between these two franchises, then it should be no surprise if we see an energized performance from Philadelphia tonight—one that leads them past the Islanders while keeping total scores low given both teams’ recent trends toward unders in scoring outputs.