Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors - January 31, 2025

Alright, folks, we’ve got a spicy matchup on our hands this Friday night as the Phoenix Suns roll into Chase Center to take on the Golden State Warriors. If familiarity breeds contempt, consider this game a potential powder keg. With both teams sitting at near parity in their records and performance stats, this one is primed for drama.

Oddsmakers have opened with the Warriors as -1-point favorites – a razor-thin margin that tells us they expect this to be a dogfight. The total sits at 226.5 points, which feels just about right given both teams’ recent performances. Let’s dive into the numbers because I see some value here.

Starting with the Suns, they’ve been struggling lately, boasting a record of 24-22 straight up (SU) and an abysmal 16-29-1 against the spread (ATS). However, let’s not forget that they were 8-3 SU in their last eleven games before that rough loss against the Timberwolves where they missed covering as -1 favorites. They also have shown some defensive grit lately with four of their last five games going UNDER the total points line—though they did allow 121 points in that last outing.

Conversely, Golden State comes into this game with a record of 24-23 SU and 24-23 ATS. They’ve shown signs of life lately with a solid 4-1 ATS run over their previous five matchups. But here’s where it gets interesting: despite their home-court advantage (which isn’t what it used to be), they’ve been downright terrible against the spread at home lately—just 5-10 ATS over their last fifteen games at Chase Center.

Now let’s break down the offensive firepower. The Suns average about 112.7 points per game on an impressive shooting percentage of around 47.5%. Their three-point shooting sits comfortably at nearly 37.7%, providing them ample opportunity to rain down bombs when needed. And while their assist numbers aren’t eye-popping compared to other top-tier offenses (27 per game), they still get enough ball movement going to find quality shots.

On the flip side, Golden State may score slightly less per game at around 111.3 points but has proven capable of explosive nights as well. However, they’re only hitting about 44.6% from field goal range and struggle even more from downtown at just over 36%.

Defensively speaking, both teams have weaknesses; however, Golden State is notably worse when it comes to fouls committed and turnovers lost—which can swing momentum quickly in close contests like these.

Here’s my prediction: I’m taking the Suns to win outright tonight and cover that slim point spread we’re seeing; if you’re feeling brave enough for an added sprinkle on them winning straight up! Also expect this game to go OVER—both squads have shown they can light it up when push comes to shove.

So grab your lucky charm or whatever superstitious ritual you swear by because tonight’s action promises fireworks!