Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders - October 13, 2024

As a former sports statistician now blending my analytical skills with a passion for the NFL, I’m excited to dive into this Sunday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. The Steelers come into this game as -3 point favorites, with an opening total of 41.5 points, indicating that oddsmakers anticipate a tightly contested game.

To set the stage, let’s briefly recap each team’s recent performances. The Raiders stumbled in their last outing against the Denver Broncos, suffering a 34-18 defeat. This not only dropped their record to 2-3, but confirms that they are struggling overall, particularly in their last game where they failed to cover the +3-point spread while the total score exceeded the expected total. In contrast, the Steelers also encountered disappointment, losing 20-17 to the Cowboys, which leaves them sitting at 3-2. That game too saw them fail to cover the spread as a -2.5 favorite, pushing the total points below the line, furthering the trend of low-scoring games for Pittsburgh.

Analyzing scoring efficiency, the Steelers average 18.4 points per game while the Raiders manage slightly more at 19.2 points per game. However, the Steelers exhibit a stronger rushing attack, averaging 121.2 rushing yards versus the Raiders’ 84 rushing yards per game—a notable advantage in controlling the clock and dictating the pace of play. Both teams share impressive completion percentages of around 67.8% for the Steelers and 68% for the Raiders, suggesting that both can move the ball efficiently through the air. However, the Steelers’ capacity to gain more yards per rush (6.964) speaks to their ability to make significant runs when needed.

Current trends indicate that Pittsburgh performs effectively against the spread, with a 6-3 record in their last 9 matchups. On the flip side, Las Vegas holds a solid home record, going 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 home games. Nonetheless, it’s important to consider that the total has landed under in four of Pittsburgh’s last five games, while Las Vegas has favored high-scoring games with the total going over in five of their last seven matches. As this clash unfolds, I suspect we may see a return to the trend of lower scoring; with the historical data at hand, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the game finish beneath the opening total of 41.5 points.

Considering all the factors, my prediction is clear: I believe the Steelers will emerge victorious against the Raiders. They should cover the -3 spread, bolstered by a dominant rushing game and solid defensive matchups. I also anticipate another low-scoring affair, leaning towards the under for the total points. In a sport defined by analytics, the numbers speak volumes, and I expect this game to play out as analyzed despite the Raiders’ home advantage.