Real Valladolid @ Alavés - October 18, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I find this upcoming matchup between Alaves and Real Valladolid particularly compelling, not just for the bragging rights on the line, but also for the underlying data that tell a deeper story about both teams’ current forms and outcomes. The odds reflect a tangible sentiment from the betting community, with Alaves opening at -116, signaling a projected win for them, while Real Valladolid is sitting at +320, indicative of their struggles this season.

From a statistical standpoint, Alaves has a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses. This places them in the lower half of La Liga, currently holding the 13th position. In contrast, Real Valladolid finds themselves in a precarious position, with a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and 6 losses, positioning them 19th on the table. The foundational stats reflect a clear disparity in both teams’ performances this season.

Alaves is coming off a 3-0 setback against FC Barcelona—an expected outcome against one of the league’s powerhouses. Despite that loss, their overall goals scored per game indicate a certain attacking potential, averaging around 1.2 goals scored in their nine matches thus far. The betting line has factored in their likelihood to take charge, particularly since they are hosting this encounter.

On the flip side, Real Valladolid continues to struggle, with their latest loss against Rayo Vallecano adding to their dismal tally. Notably, they have averaged just 0.8 goals scored per match but have conceded 2.3 goals. Their defensive weaknesses have been illuminated more glaringly in their nine matches this season, contributing to why they occupy the relegation zone. This gives Alaves the opportunity to exploit these vulnerabilities further.

One of the more fascinating metrics to consider ahead of the match is the trend of total goals scored in their recent encounters. Notably, both teams have an inclination towards games finishing with more than 2.5 total goals—something we witnessed last matchday, as both Alaves and Real Valladolid’s fixtures ended in an OVER for totals bettors. Based on historical data and the current player form, it’s reasonable to expect similar dynamics in their upcoming clash.

Considering the odds set by bookmakers and supported by the fact that Alaves is at home, I would predict a scoreline favorable to the home side. Alaves is likely to take the initiative, testing Real Valladolid’s defense early and often. I anticipate a competitive match but would lean toward Alaves winning this contest, perhaps in a manner that sees both teams contributing goals—ultimately leading to an OVER result.

The stage is set for what should be an exciting matchup as Alaves takes on Real Valladolid, with fans and bettors eager to see if the numbers predict a justifiable outcome. Based on the current form and averages, a possible scoreline might favor Alaves at around 2-1 or 3-1. Whatever happens, the underlying data points towards an engaging encounter on Friday.