Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals - October 21, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I find myself excitedly analyzing the face-off between the Los Angeles Chargers and Arizona Cardinals this Monday at State Farm Stadium. With the oddsmakers opening with the Cardinals as -1-point favorites and the game’s total at 46.5, there are plenty of intriguing data points to consider.

Let’s begin with the recent form of both teams. The Cardinals’ last outing was a tough 34-13 loss against the Packers, failing to cover the +5.5-point spread. This marked their sixth straight home game in which they garnered an underwhelming 2-4 record against the spread. Historically, the Cardinals have struggled at home, sporting a dismal 4-21 mark in their last 25 games in front of their home crowd.

Conversely, the Chargers enter this matchup with a more favorable outlook. They recently secured a 23-16 victory over the Broncos, covering the -3-point spread comfortably. While they boast a 3-2 record this season, their overall historical performance leaves some questions; they are 4-10 in their last 14 games. A point of interest is the Chargers’ recent underscoring ability—having gone under in six of their last seven games, it shows a trend towards lower-scoring games.

When we crunch the numbers for offensive output, the Chargers average 18.2 points per game, while the Cardinals put up slightly more with 22.2 points per game. The passing game has favored the Cardinals as well, who average 197.7 passing yards with a high completion percentage of 69.2%. On the ground, the Cardinals have registered 145.2 rushing yards per game, which is impressive. In comparison, the Chargers’ offense averages just 167.8 passing yards and 127.8 rushing yards, suggesting that the Cardinals may have the advantage in offensive potency.

Despite the Cardinals’ statistical edge in points and rushing yards, their tendency to fail in securing wins raises a flag. They are 6-19 in their last 25 games, and their defensive struggles have been evident. With the Chargers expected to gain points, we can reasonably predict that the Chargers will emerge victorious in this contest, but betting on them to cover the spread seems risky, and one may lean towards the Cardinals managing to do so at home given both teams’ disparities.

Looking at the total score, I am inclined to believe the game will go under 46.5. With both teams struggling with offensive consistency and the Chargers’ consistent trend towards lower-scoring affairs, it’s likely we’ll see another underscored matchup.

In summary, I predict the Los Angeles Chargers will beat the Arizona Cardinals while the Cardinals will cover the spread. The Over/Under likely lands under 46.5 due to both teams’ offensive inconsistencies. The statistical trends suggest a tightly contested game, characterized by a struggle for points rather than a shootout, and that bodes well for the under.