San Jose Sharks @ Calgary Flames - April 13, 2025

As the San Jose Sharks prepare to face off against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome this Sunday, there is a palpable sense of tension that comes with familiarity. With both teams having faced each other numerous times, one can expect a heated matchup. The oddsmakers have placed the Flames as substantial favorites at -217, while the total opened at 5.5 goals.

Looking at recent performances, Calgary enters this game after a solid 4-2 victory over the Minnesota Wild, where they managed to score more than their average of 2.59 goals per game. Their offensive stats reveal they take an average of approximately 29.4 shots per game with an 8.9% shooting percentage and a respectable power play conversion rate of 20.7%. Despite being favored in this matchup, it’s worth noting that Calgary has struggled recently on home ice, going just 3-10 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games at home.

On the flip side, we have San Jose coming off an unfortunate loss to Edmonton, marking their eighth consecutive defeat. The Sharks’ record stands at a dismal 20-48-11 SU for the season and they have been unable to find their footing offensively or defensively; averaging only about 2.6 goals per game with a low shooting percentage of nearly 9.7%. Their defensive woes are compounded by an underwhelming save percentage of just 88.1% and a penalty kill rate of only 73.28%.

Statistically speaking, while Calgary’s offense appears stronger on paper compared to San Jose’s struggling unit, we should also consider how both teams perform under pressure and during critical moments such as power plays or penalty kills—areas where Calgary holds slight advantages.

The trends indicate that while Calgary is likely to win given their current form and home advantage, San Jose has shown some resilience in covering spreads lately; they are currently sitting at a respectable 4-2 ATS in their last six games despite losing outright in five straight contests.

Given these factors combined with historical matchups between these two teams—which often tend toward lower-scoring affairs—it would be prudent to lean towards an UNDER outcome for total goals scored in this contest.

In summary: I predict that while Calgary will emerge victorious over San Jose tonight based on overall team performance metrics and current streaks, don’t overlook the possibility that San Jose could cover the spread due to their ability to keep games closer than expected even amidst adversity. Expecting fewer than six total goals seems reasonable given both teams’ recent scoring struggles—so my prediction aligns with an UNDER outcome as well for this matchup!