San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning - December 5, 2024

As the San Jose Sharks prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena, we can expect an intriguing matchup between two teams with contrasting recent performances and statistics. The Lightning enter this game as heavy favorites, opening at -233 on the moneyline, but they have struggled in their last few outings. After a disappointing 5-3 loss to the Maple Leafs, they will be looking to bounce back against a Sharks team that has found some momentum.

San Jose is currently riding a three-game winning streak, boasting a record of 10-13-5. Their recent success can be attributed to solid defensive play and timely scoring. They managed to edge out the Capitals in their last game with a narrow 2-1 victory, which reflects their ability to keep games low-scoring—something that might come into play tonight given Tampa Bay’s offensive stats.

When we look at the numbers, Tampa Bay leads in goals per game (3.739) compared to San Jose’s 2.889. However, it’s worth noting that while Tampa boasts a strong shooting percentage of 13.2%, they have been inconsistent lately with only two wins in their last six games (2-4 SU). This inconsistency could open up opportunities for San Jose.

Defensively, both teams are relatively comparable; San Jose has slightly better save percentage (89.6% vs. Tampa’s 89%) and penalty kill percentage (81.52% vs. Tampa’s 77.94%). This indicates that while Tampa may score more frequently on average, they also allow quite a few goals—something we’ve seen reflected in their recent games going OVER the total.

Given these factors and trends, I predict that while Tampa Bay will likely emerge victorious due to their offensive firepower and home advantage, it won’t come without challenges from the Sharks who are covering well lately—going 5-0 ATS in their last five games and showing an ability to keep things close.

The total opened at 7.5; however, considering both teams’ current trajectories—Tampa’s defensive vulnerabilities alongside San Jose’s grinding style—I would lean towards an UNDER outcome for this matchup as well.

In conclusion: expect a competitive game where Tampa Bay edges out San Jose for the win but not by much; I see them taking it by one goal or so while San Jose covers the spread once again thanks to its resilient defense and opportunistic playmaking abilities on offense.