St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs - August 2, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I find myself eagerly anticipating the upcoming clash between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. This storied rivalry has always delivered drama and excitement, but this matchup also presents an interesting statistical narrative worth exploring.

The Cardinals are sending Erick Fedde to the mound, who boasts a solid 7-4 record with a 4.1 ERA. While his numbers may not jump off the page, he has been effective enough to keep his team in games. On the other hand, Javier Assad will take the hill for the Cubs with a respectable 5-3 record and slightly better ERA of 3.8. Both pitchers have shown they can handle pressure; however, it’s important to note that Fedde has struggled recently with consistency—his last few outings have seen him give up more runs than expected.

When we look at offensive production, both teams are relatively close in terms of runs per game: the Cardinals average around 4.2 runs while the Cubs sit at about 4.1 runs per game. However, when it comes to hitting metrics such as batting average and on-base slugging percentage, St. Louis edges out Chicago slightly with a .240 average compared to .226 and a higher on-base slugging percentage of approximately 68% versus Chicago’s near 67%. This suggests that while both offenses have their strengths, St. Louis might be generating slightly more quality contact.

Interestingly enough, recent trends reveal that St. Louis has been performing well against left-handed pitching lately—a crucial factor since Assad is right-handed but still poses challenges given his ability to strike out batters (averaging around 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings). The Cardinals’ lineup appears primed for success against pitchers like Assad based on their recent performances.

Defensively speaking, both teams have shown vulnerabilities this season; however, St. Louis stands out for its ability to perform well on the road (8-1 ATS in their last nine games), which could bode well for them tonight against a struggling Cubs team that’s just 4-9 ATS in their last thirteen contests.

Given these factors—the starting pitcher matchups along with each team’s offensive capabilities—I’m leaning towards predicting a victory for St. Louis in this game despite being away from home base at Wrigley Field.

Additionally, considering how both offenses operate and how Fedde’s recent struggles might play into this matchup combined with Chicago’s tendency towards lower-scoring affairs lately (with totals going under frequently), I expect tonight’s total score will likely remain under as well.

To sum up my predictions: expect a hard-fought battle where I believe the Cardinals will edge out over the Cubs while keeping overall scoring low—certainly one worth watching!