St. Louis Blues @ Edmonton Oilers - April 9, 2025

As the puck drops at Rogers Place on Wednesday, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between the St. Louis Blues and the Edmonton Oilers. The oddsmakers have opened with the Blues as slight favorites at -101 on the moneyline, but I believe we could see a different outcome in this game.

Starting with Edmonton’s offensive stats, they average approximately 3.2 goals per game, which is slightly above St. Louis’ 3.0 goals per game. The Oilers also outshoot their opponents with an average of nearly 32 shots per game compared to the Blues’ 26.8 shots. Their shooting percentage stands at a respectable 10.2%, while St. Louis boasts an even higher rate of 11.7%. However, when considering overall offensive zone time and Corsi percentages—metrics that gauge possession—the Oilers hold an advantage with a Corsi percentage of roughly 54% compared to St. Louis’ near 49%.

On special teams, both squads have shown some effectiveness on the power play; however, Edmonton has a notable edge here too, converting about 24.6% of their chances into goals versus St. Louis’ modest conversion rate of around 21.5%. This could be pivotal if either team finds themselves in penalty trouble.

Defensively speaking, both teams are relatively close in terms of save percentages: Edmonton sits at about 89.3%, just behind St. Louis’ slightly better mark of 89.7%. However, where things start to diverge significantly is in penalty killing efficiency; Edmonton’s penalty kill operates at around 77.9%, while St. Louis struggles more at just under 73.8%. This discrepancy could prove crucial if special teams play a significant role during this contest.

Looking back at recent performances provides additional context for our predictions: Edmonton comes off a narrow loss against Anaheim (3-2), and they’ve struggled recently with only one cover against the spread (ATS) in their last six games (1-5 ATS). On the other hand, despite losing their last match against Winnipeg (3-1), St. Louis has been competitive lately with a solid record against the spread (15-8 ATS over their last few outings).

Considering all these factors leads me to predict that while I see Edmonton winning this matchup outright due to their superior offensive capabilities and home advantage, I believe that St. Louis will manage to cover the spread based on their competitive nature and recent form.

In terms of scoring expectations for this game, given both teams’ tendencies towards lower-scoring outcomes recently—Edmonton has seen five consecutive games go UNDER—the total set at over/under of 5.5 seems high for what we might witness tonight.

In summary: my prediction sees Edmonton taking home the victory while St.Louis manages to cover the spread as underdogs—and don’t be surprised if this one ends up being another low-scoring affair well below that total line!