St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays - September 15, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I relish the opportunity to dive into the numbers and analyze what we can expect from today’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Both teams are looking for a crucial victory, but let’s break down the stats to see where each side stands.

Starting with the pitchers, we have Miles Mikolas on the mound for St. Louis. His record sits at 8-11 with an ERA of 4.2. While those numbers may not jump off the page, he has been consistent in terms of strikeouts, averaging around 8.1 per nine innings pitched. On the other side is Yariel Rodríguez for Toronto, who has struggled this season with a 1-6 record and an ERA slightly higher at 4.4. His strikeout rate is comparable to Mikolas’s but falls short when considering his overall effectiveness on the mound.

When it comes to offensive production, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses that could influence today’s game outcome. The Cardinals average about 4.1 runs per game and boast a batting average of .241—slightly better than Toronto’s .236 average—but they lag behind in terms of total RBIs (3.9 per game compared to Toronto’s 4). However, St. Louis does manage more hits per game (8.3) than Toronto (8.1), which indicates they might be able to generate more scoring opportunities despite lower run production.

The Blue Jays’ offense has shown some resilience lately; they scored seven runs against St. Louis in their last meeting—a sign that they can capitalize on pitching mistakes if given chances early in the game.

Now let’s talk about trends: The Cardinals are currently sitting at .500 with a record of 74-74 SU but have struggled recently, going just 2-4 SU in their last six games while also failing to cover spreads effectively (2-4 ATS). Conversely, while Toronto holds a disappointing record of 70-78 SU this season, they’ve fared better against spreads recently (5-2 ATS in their last seven games).

Interestingly enough, historical matchups indicate that when these two teams meet, there tends to be plenty of runs scored—evidenced by nine out of twelve recent encounters going OVER the total runs line set by oddsmakers.

Given all these factors—the performances from both starters along with team batting averages—I predict that today’s game will likely end up favoring St. Louis as they look for redemption after losing their previous outing against Toronto by five runs just days ago.

In conclusion: Expect an OVER on total runs as both offenses find ways to exploit starting pitching inconsistencies while I lean towards picking St. Louis for today’s victory based on recent trends and statistical analysis!