Tampa Bay Lightning @ Dallas Stars - March 20, 2025

As the Tampa Bay Lightning prepare to face off against the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center, we can expect an intriguing matchup between two teams with distinct styles and recent performances. The oddsmakers have set Dallas as slight favorites at -127 on the moneyline, with a total of 5.5 goals for this game.

Dallas enters this game boasting an impressive record of 43-21-3 and is coming off a thrilling 4-3 victory over the Anaheim Ducks. Their offensive stats reveal that they average approximately 3.4 goals per game on about 29 shots, giving them a shooting percentage of around 12.3%. They have shown remarkable consistency in their scoring, particularly on the power play, where they convert roughly 22.6% of their chances into goals.

However, while their offense has been potent, it’s worth noting that Dallas has struggled against the spread recently, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. This could be indicative of some inconsistency in performance or perhaps even bad luck in close contests.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay holds a slightly better overall record at 39-23-5 and is fresh off a solid defensive effort against Philadelphia, winning that contest by a score of 2-0. The Lightning’s offensive capabilities are evident as they average about 3.5 goals per game with a shooting percentage slightly higher than Dallas’s at around 12.7%. They also excel on special teams with a power play conversion rate of nearly 25.8%.

Defensively, both teams are comparable; however, Tampa Bay edges out slightly with a save percentage of about 90.7%, compared to Dallas’s respectable but lower figure of around 90.4%. Additionally, Tampa’s penalty kill unit operates at an efficiency rate of approximately 82.5%, which is slightly less effective than Dallas’s impressive penalty kill rate of over 84%.

Given these statistics and trends leading into Thursday night’s matchup, I predict that Tampa Bay will emerge victorious against Dallas and cover the spread as underdogs tonight. With both teams showing strong offensive capabilities but also having moments where defense prevails—especially given Tampa’s recent shutout—this match might lean towards being lower-scoring than expected.

Considering all factors—their recent form (Tampa is currently playing well defensively), combined goal totals from previous games (Tampa’s last was low-scoring while Dallas has had high-scoring affairs)—I foresee this game finishing under the total line set at 5.5 goals.

In summary: expect Tampa Bay to win outright while covering the spread; anticipate a final score that falls under the projected total due to solid goaltending and defensive efforts from both sides.