Tampa Bay Lightning @ Florida Panthers - April 26, 2025

As the Tampa Bay Lightning prepare to face off against the Florida Panthers at Amerant Bank Arena, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash between two division rivals. The Panthers enter as slight favorites with a moneyline of -105, while the total for the game is set at 6.5.

Both teams have had their share of ups and downs recently, but let’s break down what we can expect on Saturday night based on the numbers.

Starting with Tampa Bay, they come into this game with a record of 47-29-8 and are currently in a three-game losing streak. Their recent performance has not been ideal; they’ve gone 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games and similarly struggled with a 2-5 straight-up record over that span. However, one positive trend is that six of their last eight games have gone OVER the total, suggesting that when they do score, they tend to light up the scoreboard.

Offensively, Tampa Bay averages an impressive 3.5 goals per game with a shooting percentage of nearly 13%. They also boast a solid power play conversion rate at about 25.9%, scoring around 0.7 power play goals per game from approximately 2.8 chances. Defensively, they’re performing decently as well; their save percentage stands at about 90.7% while allowing opponents only marginally fewer shots than they take.

On the other side, we have Florida with a record of 49-31-4 who are coming off a strong win against these same Lightning just days ago—a decisive victory that ended in a shutout (2-0). Despite this success, Florida’s performance against the spread has been less than stellar lately; they’ve covered only six times in their last twenty games.

Florida’s offensive stats show them averaging just over three goals per game and generating around 31 shots on goal each outing—slightly more than Tampa Bay’s output in terms of volume but less efficient overall given their lower shooting percentage (10%). Their power play sits at about 23.5%, which is respectable but not quite as effective as Tampa’s.

Defensively, Florida holds an impressive save percentage of roughly 89.6% and boasts an even stronger penalty kill rate at around 80.7%. This will be crucial as both teams look to capitalize on special teams opportunities during this tightly contested matchup.

Based on current trends and statistical insights leading into this contest, I predict that Tampa Bay will find ways to bounce back after recent losses and cover the spread despite being underdogs again—especially considering how close these contests typically are between division rivals like these two squads.

Furthermore, given both teams’ recent patterns leaning towards lower-scoring outcomes—with several UNDER results noted for Florida—I lean toward predicting that this matchup will likely finish below the total set at 6.5 goals once again.

In summary: expect Tampa Bay to edge out Florida tonight while covering the spread—and don’t be surprised if it ends up being another low-scoring affair!