Tampa Bay Lightning @ New Jersey Devils - January 11, 2025

Looking ahead to the matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center, we have a compelling game on our hands. Both teams come in with contrasting trends that are crucial to consider as they vie for an important victory.

The odds currently favor New Jersey, but I see a potential upset here. Tampa Bay comes into this game with a solid record of 22-15-2 and has shown resilience lately, evidenced by their recent 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins. They’ve performed well against the spread too, going 12-4 in their last 16 games. The Lightning’s offensive output is impressive; averaging around 3.7 goals per game with a shooting percentage of over 13%. Their power play, while not perfect, operates at about a 26.5% success rate – meaning they can capitalize when given opportunities.

On the other hand, New Jersey boasts decent offensive stats of their own with an average of about 3.2 goals per game and a respectable power play percentage of around 28%. However, they’ve struggled recently, losing five straight games both outright and against the spread. In fact, they’ve only won once in their last six outings; it’s clear that confidence may be wavering within that locker room.

From a defensive standpoint, both teams show strong save percentages—Tampa Bay slightly edging out New Jersey—but what’s key here is how each team performs under pressure situations like penalty kills. Both teams hover around an 82% success rate on penalties which shows they’re capable defensively but also highlights that scoring chances will still be available.

Digging deeper into recent performances gives us insight into what to expect Saturday night. The total opened at a high mark of 7.5 but given both teams’ trend towards hitting the UNDER—five consecutive games for each—it might be prudent to anticipate another low-scoring affair where defenses dictate tempo rather than offensive fireworks dominating proceedings.

I predict Tampa Bay will outperform expectations and take this contest thanks to their experience and recent momentum from winning matches decisively. Furthermore, considering New Jersey’s struggles and tendency to give away late-game leads or falter under pressure could prove fatal in this matchup.

Ultimately my forecast is that Tampa Bay wins by covering the spread while keeping totals low enough to finish under what oddsmakers suggest would be more reflective of these two potent offenses on paper. Given all factors—the state of mind in each dressing room coupled with actual on-ice performance metrics—I’m betting firmly on Tampa Bay making an impact tonight at Prudential Center.