Tampa Bay Lightning @ Utah Hockey Club - March 22, 2025

As the Tampa Bay Lightning prepare to face off against the Utah Hockey Club at Delta Center, we can expect an intriguing matchup that highlights both teams’ strengths and weaknesses. Oddsmakers have opened with Utah as slight favorites at -109 on the moneyline, while the total is set at 5.5 goals. However, based on statistical analysis and recent performances, I believe Tampa Bay will come out on top in this contest.

Starting with Tampa Bay’s offensive capabilities, they are averaging 3.5 goals per game with a shooting percentage of 12.7%. This places them among the league’s more prolific scoring teams, which is crucial when considering their current form—having won three straight games and boasting a solid record of 40-23-5 overall. Their power play has also been effective, converting at a rate of 25.7%, indicating that they can capitalize on opportunities when they arise.

On the other hand, Utah’s offense averages just under 2.8 goals per game with a shooting percentage of only 10.1%. While they do have some potential—evidenced by their recent victory over Buffalo—their overall performance has been inconsistent throughout the season (31-27-11). Their power play percentage stands at 22.5%, which is respectable but pales in comparison to Tampa Bay’s effectiveness.

Defensively, both teams have shown promise but Tampa Bay edges out slightly with a save percentage of 90.7% compared to Utah’s 89.4%. Additionally, both teams possess solid penalty kill percentages—82% for Tampa Bay versus Utah’s 80.8%—but given how well Tampa has performed recently defensively and offensively, it’s hard not to favor them in this matchup.

Utah does have some home advantage going for them; they are currently riding a strong streak of six wins in their last eight home games. However, their struggles against the spread (6-16 ATS in their last 22 games) raise concerns about whether they’ll be able to maintain that momentum against a formidable opponent like Tampa Bay.

Given these factors and trends leading into Saturday’s game, I predict that Tampa Bay will secure a win while covering the spread as well—a feat they’ve accomplished successfully in most recent outings (11-5 ATS over their last sixteen games). Furthermore, I anticipate that this match will lean towards being an UNDER affair due to both teams’ defensive capabilities combined with Utah’s lackluster offensive output.

In conclusion, expect Tampa Bay Lightning to emerge victorious against Utah Hockey Club tonight while also covering the spread; keep an eye on those total points as it likely stays under due to each team’s respective scoring metrics and defensive strategies employed throughout the game.