Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks - January 23, 2025

You can feel the anticipation buzzing in the air as the Toronto Raptors gear up to face off against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena this Thursday. Oddsmakers are favoring Atlanta by 6.5 points, and with a total set at 234.5, it looks like they’re expecting some fireworks. But with my years of betting experience, I see this matchup shaping up a bit differently.

Let’s break down what we have here. The Hawks are coming off a disappointing loss to the Pistons, where they dropped 104 points and failed to cover the spread as favorites. This isn’t exactly inspiring confidence, especially since they’ve been struggling against the spread lately, going just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games. On top of that, five of their last six outings have gone UNDER—signs point to perhaps a team searching for its rhythm.

Now let’s look at Toronto. Despite their dismal record of 11-32 SU, they managed to snag a win against the Magic recently, showing they can still compete when it matters most. With a solid performance covering the +1-point spread as underdogs and posting an efficient offensive night scoring nearly 111 points per game on decent shooting percentages (46.9% from field goals), they could present a tougher challenge than expected.

Defensively speaking, both teams have flaws; however, Toronto’s defensive woes are more pronounced with them committing over 21 fouls per game compared to Atlanta’s almost 18. Still, both squads share similar turnover numbers which could be critical in determining who controls the tempo tonight.

What intrigues me is how Atlanta’s offense has been performing overall—they’re averaging about 117 points per game on decent shooting numbers (46% from the field). However, if you dig deeper into those stats, you’ll notice their struggles in recent matchups where they’ve failed to hit their stride offensively and often fall short on assists (29 per game).

Now coming back to my gut feeling—I’m leaning towards Atlanta pulling out this victory but not without some serious struggle against an underdog Raptors team that has shown flashes of brilliance lately despite their record. So I predict that Atlanta will indeed win this one but won’t cover that hefty spread.

Expecting a final score hovering around the lower end seems fitting given both teams’ tendencies toward lower-scoring games recently; I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another UNDER outcome tonight considering both teams are trending that way.

In summary: Hawks take home the win but fail to cover that -6.5 point spread while keeping things UNDER for this matchup—because sometimes luck favors those who tread carefully! Now I’ve got my lucky socks picked out for tonight; let’s hope they’re ready for action!