Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators - January 25, 2025

As we gear up for the matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre, there are several factors to consider that could shape the outcome of this game. The oddsmakers have opened with Toronto as slight favorites at -111 on the moneyline, reflecting their overall stronger season record of 27-16-2 compared to Ottawa’s 22-18-3. However, both teams come into this game with contrasting momentum.

Toronto is currently in a slump, having lost three straight games, including a disappointing 5-1 defeat against Columbus in their last outing. On the other hand, Ottawa has found some rhythm with a three-game winning streak following their recent loss to Boston. This dichotomy sets an intriguing stage for Saturday’s contest.

When examining offensive stats, Toronto averages 3.1 goals per game with a shooting percentage of approximately 11.4%. In contrast, Ottawa manages about 2.8 goals per game but boasts a slightly better shooting percentage of around 10%. While these numbers indicate that Toronto has been more prolific offensively throughout the season, it’s important to note that they’ve struggled recently — scoring just one goal against Columbus and being held scoreless by Boston prior to that.

In terms of power play efficiency, both teams show similar effectiveness; however, Ottawa edges out slightly with a power play percentage of 22.2% compared to Toronto’s 21.7%. With each team averaging around three power play chances per game (Ottawa: 3.2; Toronto: 2.8), special teams could be crucial in determining who comes out on top.

Defensively speaking, both squads have comparable save percentages — Toronto at an impressive 90% and Ottawa close behind at approximately 89.8%. Their penalty kill units also reflect similar performance levels; however, it’s worth noting that both teams have allowed too many opportunities while shorthanded recently.

Given these stats and trends heading into Saturday night’s clash, I predict that Toronto will bounce back from its losing streak and secure a victory over Ottawa. Despite recent struggles on offense and defense for the Maple Leafs, they possess superior firepower when firing on all cylinders which should be enough against an inconsistent Senators squad still finding its way after recent wins.

I expect Toronto not only to win but also cover the spread given their current form versus Ottawa’s defensive vulnerabilities despite their recent success streaks.

For those interested in total points scored during this matchup—considering both teams’ tendencies toward lower-scoring games lately—I would lean towards betting under the total set at six goals based on recent performances where scoring has been limited.

In summary: my prediction is for Toronto to emerge victorious while covering the spread with a final score likely falling under six total goals scored in what may be another tight battle between these two rivals.