Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates - April 14, 2025

As I gear up for tonight’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Washington Nationals at PNC Park, it’s hard to ignore the current state of both teams. The Pirates are in desperate need of a win, having lost three straight games, while the Nationals are also struggling with their recent performances.

Starting on the mound for the Nationals is Brad Lord, who has yet to record a win this season but boasts an impressive 1.8 ERA over his limited appearances. However, his strikeout rate sits at about 8.2 per nine innings, indicating that while he can miss bats, he may also be prone to giving up runs if he doesn’t have his best stuff. On the other side, we have Paul Skenes taking the hill for Pittsburgh. With a record of 1-1 and a higher ERA of 4.5, Skenes has shown some vulnerability this season as well.

From an offensive perspective, it’s clear that both teams have had their ups and downs this year. The Pirates are averaging just 3.4 runs per game with a low batting average of .193—numbers that suggest they struggle to generate consistent offense. Their on-base percentage isn’t much better at around 58%, which indicates they’re not getting enough runners on base or making solid contact.

Conversely, the Nationals come into this game averaging nearly five runs per game (4.6), with a slightly better batting average of .234 and an on-base slugging percentage exceeding 72%. This offensive output gives them an edge in terms of run production; however, their recent performance shows inconsistency as they’ve gone OVER in five consecutive games.

Looking deeper into team trends reveals some interesting insights: The Pirates’ struggles extend beyond just poor hitting; they’re also failing against the spread (ATS) with only one cover in their last five games and four covers in their last twelve home contests. Meanwhile, Washington has been more reliable against the spread lately with seven covers in its last eight outings.

Given these factors along with oddsmakers opening Pittsburgh as -244 favorites—a significant line suggesting confidence from bookmakers—I predict that tonight will see a turnaround for the Pirates despite their recent woes.

I expect Pittsburgh to snap its losing streak against Washington tonight primarily due to home-field advantage and perhaps some timely hitting breaking through against Lord’s pitching style which could allow them to exploit gaps given their familiarity with PNC Park.

In terms of total score predictions—given both teams’ offensive inconsistencies but also considering how frequently Washington has seen totals go OVER recently—I would lean towards an OVER outcome for tonight’s game total set at 7.5 runs.

So here’s my prediction: look for Pittsburgh to emerge victorious over Washington while we witness enough scoring action to push past that total mark!