March Madness 2025 Sports Betting Strategy Guide
Best Bets for March Madness
March Madness offers a ton of betting value if you know where to look. Here’s how to maximize your potential gains:
1. Pick Favorites to Win the NCAA Tournament
Prior to the #4 Connecticut Huskies winning the NCAA Tournament in 2023, each of the previous five March Madness champions were #1 seeds. In 2024, the Huskies cruised to another championship as the #1 seed.
Hone in on top-seeded teams when filling out your brackets and placing futures bets.
2. Find Value on Underdogs in the Early Rounds
While #1 and #2 seeds typically dominate, don’t underestimate the potential of lower-seeded teams in March Madness.
3. Don’t Forget to Handicap Totals
Go beyond moneylines and betting contests. While wins and losses are key, totals betting offers hidden value.
4. Bracket Contests Are One of the Best Bets for March Madness
Filling out brackets is popular for casual fans every season, but savvier college basketball bettors can get a shot at big wins with little to no risk. Also, don’t forget to think of funny bracket names! It won’t help you win, but it’ll get you some laughs from your friends and coworkers.
When Do March Madness Brackets Close?
The March Madness bracket deadline is the tip-off for the first round of the tournament on March 20th. This means you can submit your selections right up until the first whistle. You will need to wait for the outcome of the First Four round on the 18th and 19th of March before finalizing your bracket.
March Madness Betting Strategies
March Madness mastery starts here! Here’s how you can start building the fundamentals for your winning strategy:
1. What is a Sports Betting Bankroll?
Your bankroll is the total amount of money set aside for betting. Managing it properly means choosing a fixed unit size—usually 1–5% per bet. This helps control losses and maintain consistency, especially through inevitable winning and losing streaks during the March Madness betting marathon.
2. How To Create Your March Madness Bankroll?
Start by picking a realistic bankroll based on your disposable income. From there, set a fixed bet size to avoid chasing losses. Betting smaller amounts early in the tournament helps you conserve funds and make better-informed bets as the field narrows and matchups become clearer. MyBookie offers a healthy collection of betting guides and bankroll tips to help you create your budget, if this is your first time doing so.
Expert Betting Budget Tip: Pace your March Madness gambling for the first two rounds of the tournament. We recommend only betting on games with the clearest edge. As the tournament progresses, you’ll have more game data to help with handicapping.
3. How To Read an Injury Report?
Injury reports are a vital aspect of your March Madness betting strategy. “Probable” means a player should play normally, while “questionable” or “doubtful” signals risk. Look beyond status labels—consider the type of injury and team depth. A star guard with a hand injury matters more than a bench player nursing a mild calf strain.
Expert Injury Report Tip: Consider the team’s depth when handicapping injuries. A team with an offense built around 1-2 players may crumble if a key player gets injured. But, a system team that spreads the ball around could be better equipped to handle injuries.
4. Prepare Your Initial Lines Early
Oddsmakers post early lines for 60+ games in March Madness—but they’re not always accurate. Creating your own projections ahead of time helps you spot mismatches and capitalize on value before lines adjust. College basketball has some of the biggest line swings you will see in sports betting, so focus on teams or conferences you are already familiar with.
Expert Line Choice Tip: Jump on early line mismatches quickly. If you like Oregon as a -4 favorite, and they open as -2.5, it’s better to lock in the bet early than not at all. BetUS releases lines earlier than most sportsbooks, giving you a chance to capitalize.
5. Scheduling Tips to Consider
While March Madness is played on neutral courts, travel and fan presence still matter. A team playing close to home or backed by a massive fan base (like Kentucky or Duke) might enjoy a pseudo–home court advantage. Also consider seeding matchups and historical trends between regions.
Expert Scheduling Tip: Analyze historical performance in same-conference seed matchups, and factor in travel distances and potential fan presence for both teams. Savvy bettors can locate some key scheduling-based edges.
6. What is the Best March Madness Betting Strategy?
There’s no single strategy that guarantees success. Winning bettors use a mix of research, discipline, and timing. One strong angle: focus on current team form. A low seed playing its best basketball can outperform its ranking, while a top seed in a slump could be vulnerable. Sportsbooks like Everygame offer a large amount of NCAAB markets, which makes it easier for you to diversify your strategy and invest in different parts of the tournament.
Expert Seeding Strategy Tip: Sportsbooks like Everygame offer a large amount of NCAAB markets, which makes it easier for you to diversify your strategy and invest in different parts of the tournament, while also spreading out your risk.
7. Don’t Chase Your Losses
March Madness is emotional—especially when bets lose early. But doubling down to recover quickly is a trap. Stick to your unit size and avoid desperation bets. Taking a break or skipping games with no clear value can help keep your betting mindset sharp and responsible. Sportsbooks like BetOnline offer responsible betting tools that can give you a betting cooldown period, or limits on your wagers.
Expert Responsible Gambling Tip: If you feel yourself getting frustrated, take a break. It’s better to take a day off from college basketball betting than to chase losses or bet under pressure.
Types of March Madness Bets
There’s a diversity of March Madness sports gambling opportunities, from outright winner moneyline wagers to NCAA Tournament contests. Here are the most popular March Madness bets:
March Madness Bracket Challenges
In March Madness Bracket Challenges, participants predict the outcome of each NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament game to create the most accurate bracket. Points are awarded for each correct prediction, with higher stakes often placed on later rounds and the ultimate winner.
For example, a contest may award one point for each correct first-round prediction, two points for each correct second-round prediction, and so on. The participant with the highest total score at the end of the tournament wins the contest.
Moneyline
A moneyline bet is simply picking who wins the game. For example, if Duke is -150 and UNC is +130, you’d need to bet $150 on Duke to win $100, or bet $100 on UNC to win $130. It’s straightforward—just win the game.
Point Spread
Point spread betting focuses on the margin of victory. If Kentucky is -7.5 vs Florida, they must win by 8+ to cover. If Florida loses by 7 or less—or wins outright—that bet cashes. Spreads help even the odds between strong and weak teams.
Totals
Totals bets involve predicting whether both teams’ combined score goes over or under a set number. If the line is 150.5 and the game ends 71–65, the total is 136 and the UNDER wins. It’s not about who wins, just the score.
Parlays
Parlays combine multiple bets into one ticket. All selections must win for the parlay to cash. Add more picks, increase the payout—but also the risk. You can mix spreads, moneylines, and totals into a single high-reward wager.
Props
Props are bets on specific outcomes within a game, not the final score. Some examples are the first team to score, total rebounds by a player, or whether someone gets a double-double. Props let you bet creatively and add variety to March Madness wagering.
Futures
Futures are long-term bets on tournament outcomes—like who’ll win March Madness or make the Final Four. These bets are placed before or during the tournament and give you a rooting interest that can last weeks or months.
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Guide to March Madness Live Betting
Nothing captures the thrill and excitement of March Madness quite like live betting. Every possession and clock stoppage delivers a new opportunity to place a live bet on the action. Here’s your guide to make the most of the March Madness live betting experience:
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Live betting is all about making constant adjustments as the game unfolds. Odds shift based on on-court action and betting activity. It is essential to practice reading moneyline odds before live betting on March Madness games. If you understand that (-120) means risking $120 to win $100 or bet $6 to win $5, you’ll recognize the value and act quickly to lock it in before it adjusts.
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Before placing any live bets, we recommend studying the injury reports available online. While live betting, X (formerly known as Twitter) is a great source for live injury updates. If a player goes down, gather information on the severity of that injury to quickly adjust your betting strategy.
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Each online sportsbook has specific college basketball live betting rules, found in the help section or via customer service. For example, a live bet on points scored in the second half can include overtime. This may impact how you handicap the total in a close game. Ensure you know your sportsbook’s rules on March Madness live betting before diving into the action.
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The first round of March Madness throws multiple games at you simultaneously, tempting you to live bet on them all. But the true edge that live betting provides is to observe the ebbs and flows of a game in real time. We recommend being selective and disciplined when live betting on the NCAA Tournament by sticking to games you’re able to watch.
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Hedging in March Madness involves placing bets on both sides of a game to guarantee a profit or minimize a loss. For example, say you bet $120 to win $100 on the Kansas Jayhawks as (-120) favorites before the game. If they take a big early lead, you could bet $50 on their opponent to win $75 at (+150) on a live line. This would reduce your max loss to $45, while still earning you a $50 profit if the Jayhawks win.
The issue with this practice is limiting your winning potential in the long run. Plus, you’re always paying chalk on the losing side. Stick to responsible bet sizing so you don’t feel the desire to hedge out of your wagers.
Expert March Madness Picks
See All CBB PicksWhich Conference Has the Most NCAA Tournament Wins?
Every season of college basketball is unique, so conference power rankings will shift from year to year. It’s useful to look beyond the current season and explore historical conference performance to help build your March Madness strategy.
Note: The ACC has had eight championship teams since 2001 and the Big East has seven:
| CONFERENCE | CHAMPIONSHIPS | WIN % |
|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Coast Conference | 15 (1957, 1974, 1982, 1983, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019) | .178 (out of 83 all-time NCAA Tournaments) |
| Pac-12 Conference | 15 (1939, 1942, 1959, 1964, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1975, 1995, 1997) | .178 |
| Southeast Conference | 11 (1948, 1949, 1951, 1958, 1978, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2006, 2007, 2012) | .131 |
| Big Ten Conference | 10 (1940, 1941, 1953, 1960, 1976, 1979, 1981, 1987, 1989, 2000) | .119 |
| Big East Conference | 10 (1984, 1985, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2023, 2024) | .119 |
| Independents | 6 (1944, 1947, 1954, 1963, 1966, 1977) | .071 |
| Missouri Valley Conference | 4 (1945, 1946, 1961, 1962) | .047 |
| Big 12 Conference | 3 (2008, 2021, 2022) | .035 |
| Big 8 Conference (1907-1996) | 2 (1952, 1988) | .024 |
| Metro Conference (1975-1995) | 2 (1980, 1986) | .024 |
| West Coast Conference | 2 (1955, 1956) | .024 |
| American Athletic Conference | 1 (2014) | .012 |
| Big West Conference | 1 (1990) | .012 |
| Metropolitan New York Conference (1933-1963) | 1 (1950) | .012 |
| Mountain States Conference (1938-1962) | 1 (1943) | .012 |
NCAA Championship Seed: Historical Win Percentages
March Madness is perhaps best known for the thrilling upsets and buzzer-beaters that earned the NCAA Tournament its nickname. But when push comes to shove, the tournament’s top seeds are almost always standing in the NCAA Championship Game. Here’s a look at the record and statistics of every seed since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
| SEED | TOTAL WINS | TOTAL LOSSES | WIN % | # OF CHAMPIONSHIPS | # OF RUNNER UPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 500 | 128 | .796 | 24 | 13 |
| #2 | 354 | 147 | .707 | 5 | 8 |
| #3 | 281 | 148 | .655 | 4 | 7 |
| #4 | 235 | 150 | .610 | 2 | 2 |
| #5 | 176 | 152 | .537 | 0 | 4 |
| #6 | 160 | 151 | .514 | 1 | 1 |
| #7 | 136 | 151 | .474 | 1 | 0 |
| #8 | 110 | 151 | .421 | 1 | 3 |
| #9 | 93 | 152 | .380 | 0 | 0 |
| #10 | 93 | 151 | .381 | 0 | 0 |
| #11 | 98 | 152 | .392 | 0 | 0 |
| #12 | 77 | 152 | .338 | 0 | 0 |
| #13 | 38 | 152 | .200 | 0 | 0 |
| #14 | 24 | 152 | .136 | 0 | 0 |
| #15 | 16 | 152 | .095 | 0 | 0 |
| #16 | 2 | 152 | .013 | 0 | 0 |
Seed vs. Seed Data
Below is a breakdown of the seed vs. seed win-loss record for each March Madness first-round matchup since 1985.
Note: While the #5 vs. #12 matchup is generally most well-known for its upset potential, similar upset frequencies are found in #6 vs. #11 and #7 vs. #10 matchups:
| MATCHUP | WINS | LOSSES | WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 vs. #16 | 150 | 2 | .987 |
| #2 vs. #15 | 141 | 11 | .928 |
| #3 vs. #14 | 130 | 22 | .855 |
| #4 vs. #13 | 120 | 32 | .789 |
| #5 vs. #12 | 99 | 53 | .651 |
| #6 vs. #11 | 94 | 58 | .618 |
| #7 vs. #10 | 92 | 59 | .609 |
| #8 vs. #9 | 74 | 76 | .487 |
Percentage Wins by Seed by Round
When choosing your selections for March Madness, research historical data beyond the first round to decide how far to advance your early winners. For example, just under half of the #11 seeds that have won in the first round have also moved on to the Sweet 16, so a strong one might be worth penciling in for back-to-back wins.
| SEED | 1ST RD | 2ND RD | SWEET 16 | ELITE 8 | FINAL 4 | CHAMPIONSHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | .987 | .871 | .705 | .594 | .617 | .649 |
| #2 | .928 | .696 | .716 | .471 | .406 | .384 |
| #3 | .855 | .640 | .488 | .436 | .647 | .364 |
| #4 | .789 | .636 | .319 | .609 | .286 | .500 |
| #5 | .651 | .529 | .231 | .750 | .444 | .000 |
| #6 | .618 | .473 | .444 | .188 | .667 | .500 |
| #7 | .609 | .381 | .345 | .300 | .333 | 1.000 |
| #8 | .487 | .216 | .600 | .667 | .667 | .250 |
| #9 | .513 | .103 | .625 | .400 | .000 | N/A |
| #10 | .391 | .407 | .375 | .111 | .000 | N/A |
| #11 | .382 | .448 | .346 | .556 | .000 | N/A |
| #12 | .349 | .415 | .090 | .000 | N/A | N/A |
| #13 | .211 | .193 | .000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| #14 | .145 | .090 | .000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| #15 | .072 | .363 | .250 | .000 | N/A | N/A |
| #16 | .013 | .000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
How Many Upsets Usually Happen During March Madness?
The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Lower-seeded teams knocking off #1 seeds is always an exciting event during March Madness. In fact, some teams have a lot more history of delivering losses to top seeds than others. Take a look at 12 teams that have scored four or more upset wins over #1 seeds in March Madness history:
| TEAM | # OF MARCH MADNESS UPSETS OVER #1 SEEDS |
|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 9 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 8 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 8 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 7 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 7 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 6 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 5 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 5 |
| Syracuse Orange | 5 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 4 |
| UCLA Bruins | 4 |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 4 |
How Many Upsets do you Need to Pick for March Madness?
A mathematically sound betting strategy for March Madness involves understanding how many upsets to expect in the first round. Using historical seed vs. seed performances as a guide, here are our recommendations for how many March Madness upsets to choose:
| MATCHUP | WIN % | UPSET % | EST. OUT OF 100 | HOW OFTEN SHOULD YOU PICK A 1ST ROUND UPSET? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 vs. #16 | .987 | .013 | 1 | About once every 25 NCAA Tournaments |
| #2 vs. #15 | .928 | .072 | 7 | About once every three NCAA Tournaments |
| #3 vs. #14 | .855 | .145 | 14 | About once every two NCAA Tournaments |
| #4 vs. #13 | .789 | .211 | 21 | About one per NCAA Tournament |
| #5 vs. #12 | .651 | .349 | 35 | One or two per NCAA Tournament |
| #6 vs. #11 | .618 | .382 | 38 | One or two per NCAA Tournament |
| #7 vs. #10 | .609 | .391 | 39 | One or two per NCAA Tournament |
| #8 vs. #9 | .487 | .513 | 51 | Two per NCAA Tournament |
March Madness Game Trends
While each NCAA Tournament is unique, bettors can usually count on a handful of March Madness game trends that college basketball fans see almost every year:
Count On Great Shooting Teams
Top Seeds Dominate the First Round
Upsets Aplenty in the First Two Rounds
Many NCAA Tournaments Have a Cinderella Story
Most NCAAB March Madness Tournament Appearances By Team
There are 26 teams in the history of March Madness that have earned a bid to the NCAA Tournament 30 times or more. The teams at the top of this list tend to have high expectations every year, given their experience and history of success:
| TEAM | # OF TOURNAMENT APPEARANCES |
|---|---|
| Kentucky Wildcats | 61 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 53 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 52 |
| UCLA Bruins | 50 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 46 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 41 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 40 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 39 |
| Texas Longhorns | 38 |
| Syracuse Orange | 37 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 37 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 37 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | 36 |
| UConn Huskies | 36 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 35 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 34 |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 34 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 34 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 34 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 34 |
| Cincinatti Bearcats | 33 |
| Temple Owls | 33 |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 33 |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 31 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 31 |
| West Virginia Mountaineers | 31 |
| BYU Cougars | 30 |
Most March Madness Tournament Games Played – All-Time
Only 24 teams in NCAA Tournament history have played in 75 or more March Madness games through the 2024 tournament. Racking up this many tournament games requires consistent bids into the tournament and plenty of wins to add to that game total.
| TEAM | # OF TOTAL GAMES PLAYED |
|---|---|
| Kentucky Wildcats | 188 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 183 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 167 |
| Duke Blue Devils | 163 |
| UCLA Bruins | 160 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 120 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 110 |
| Syracuse Orange | 109 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 109 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 104 |
| Connecticut Huskies | 103 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 97 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 96 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 92 |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 85 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 84 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 81 |
| Texas Longhorns | 81 |
| Marquette Golden Eagles | 81 |
| Illinois Fighting Iliini | 81 |
| Cincinnati Bearcats | 78 |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 77 |
| Kansas State Wildcats | 76 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 75 |
Highest NCAAB Tournament Winning Percentage
There are currently 23 NCAA Tournament teams boasting a win percentage of 60% or higher after playing at least 30 games. These teams tend to win at least a couple of games each year before being eliminated.
| TEAM | Record | WIN % |
|---|---|---|
| Duke Blue Devils | 119-40 | .748 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | 131-49 | .728 |
| UCLA Bruins | 115-45 | .719 |
| Florida Gators | 48-20 | .706 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | 132-55 | .706 |
| Kansas Jayhawks | 116-49 | .703 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 66-30 | .688 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 72-35 | .686 |
| Connecticut Huskies | 65-32 | .670 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 68-36 | .654 |
| Villanova Wildcats | 71-39 | .645 |
| Gonzaga Bulldogs | 44-25 | .638 |
| UNLV Rebels | 33-19 | .635 |
| Syracuse Orange | 69-40 | .633 |
| Louisville Cardinals | 76-44 | .633 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 58-34 | .630 |
| Oregon Ducks | 26-16 | .619 |
| Arizona Wildcats | 58-36 | .617 |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 40-25 | .615 |
| Auburn Tigers | 19-12 | .613 |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 47-30 | .610 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 35-23 | .603 |
| Butler Bulldogs | 24-16 | .600 |
All-Time Number 1 Seeds
Many programs have earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament once or twice. Only four have been a #1 seed more than 10 times. It should also come as no surprise that these four schools are also the top four in all-time tournament wins, as highlighted above.
| TIMES AS A #1 SEED | School |
|---|---|
| 17 | North Carolina Tar Heels |
| 15 | Kansas Jayhawks |
| 14 | Duke Blue Devils |
| 12 | Kentucky Wildcats |
| 7 | Arizona Wildcats, Virginia Cavaliers |
| 5 | Georgetown Hoyas, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Michigan State Spartans, Oklahoma Sooners, UConn Huskies |
| 4 | DePaul Blue Demons, Illinois Fighting Illini, Ohio State Buckeyes, Purdue Boilermakers, UCLA Bruins, Villanova Wildcats |
| 3 | Indiana Hoosiers, St. John’s Red Storm, Stanford Cardinal, Syracuse Orange, UNLV Rebels |
| 2 | Arkansas Razorbacks, Baylor Bears, Florida Gators, Houston Cougars, Louisville Cardinals, LSU Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, Pittsburgh Panthers |
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers, Cincinnati Bearcats, Indiana State Sycamores, Maryland Terrapins, Memphis Tigers, Missouri Tigers, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Oregon Ducks, St. Joseph’s Hawks, Temple Owls, Texas Longhorns, Wake Forest Demon Deacons, Washington Huskies, Wichita State Shockers, Wisconsin Badgers, Xavier Musketeers |
Top March Madness Betting Tips
Using proven college basketball betting strategies like those we’ve provided are bound to improve at handicapping, and increase their overall win percentages. Here are some additional top March Madness betting tips to add to your repertoire:
Look For Tournament Contests
Know When to Place March Madness Bets
Examine Coach Cover Rates
Watch the Game
Combine Betting Strategies
Responsible Gambling
We encourage you to gamble responsibly. Consider online betting to be a form of entertainment, not a source of income. Set loss limits and time limits, and don’t bet more than you’re comfortable losing.
Here are some resources to help you, or someone you care about, gamble responsibly:
March Madness Betting Tips Overview
March Madness is an exciting tournament to bet on, and knowledge is power when it comes to building your successful March Madness betting strategy. Whether you are just looking for a bracket guide for your office pool or you plan to wager on individual games this season, the tips and strategies found on this page will put you in a better position to win.
Make sure to check back at The Sports Geek all March long for the best March Madness bets, expert picks, and more in-depth betting strategies. Good luck! We’re rooting for you!
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