MLB Betting Strategy and Tips
Finding the right MLB betting strategy is key to making the most of wagering on America’s pastime. Bettors of all types can benefit from our MLB betting tips. We cover all the basics to succeed, as well as advanced strategies that can elevate your win rate.
Read on to learn all the stats, strategies, betting scenarios, and insider tips to optimize your MLB bets.
Basic Betting Strategies for the MLB
MLB betting is a beginner-friendly way to enjoy the excitement of baseball while testing your knowledge of the sport. Understanding team performance, player stats, and odds is key to boosting your chances of winning.
This guide provides easy-to-follow MLB betting tips to help you easily find value in your bets throughout the season. Whether you’re new to betting or looking for a refresher, these strategies offer something for everyone.
1. Start With Simple Bets
You don’t need to dive into MLB wagering with splashy, complicated bets. You can start with smaller, straightforward bets like moneylines or betting on the over/under for the total number of runs scored. Advanced baseball betting strategy becomes more useful when you understand MLB trends and wagering basics.
2. Research Line Movement
Line movements provide plenty of valuable information you can use to optimize your wagers. For example, if a totals line moves from 5.5 to 6.5 runs, it’s a sign that people have been putting a lot of money on the over. Comparing current lines against the opening lines can reveal great betting opportunities.
3. Focus On Pitching Matchups
Sluggers like Hank Aaron, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge get plenty of attention. However, pitchers influence the outcome of a baseball game more than anyone. Spend some time looking into pitching matchups before placing a bet. You can find solid value by checking out how well a bullpen performs, especially for live MLB betting.
4. Know When To Bet the Underdog
The MLB has many more regular season games than other major sports leagues. This gives you many opportunities for betting on the underdogs. You can maximize your odds of winning by zeroing in on specific underdog scenarios, such as early season road dogs and divisional underdogs.
5. Look for Recent Trends
Baseball teams and players can experience hot and cold streaks throughout the season. These trends can create strong betting opportunities. Keep an eye out for breakout teams and players at the beginning of the season and clubs that surge at the end of the season during a tight MLB playoffs race.
Fading the Public
Fading the public involves betting against the majority of public money wagered. When so many people bet a lot of money on a specific team, sportsbooks often adjust the betting line. This movement can improve the betting value for the less popular team.
Expert Tip: Fade the Most Popular Clubs
Popular MLB teams like the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers often have many fans betting on them. This can cause sportsbooks to adjust the odds and reduce the payout for the popular team. This same line movement also boosts the payout of betting on the less popular team because less money is wagered on them.
Pay Attention to the Umpire
Umpires, especially the home plate umpire, can significantly influence a game’s outcome. An umpire that calls an expanded strike zone provides an advantage for pitchers. Meanwhile, an ump that calls a smaller strike zone creates an advantage for hitters. Certain umpires can also majorly impact how players and teams perform, especially if they have a history together.
Check out websites that publish umpire stats to find out more about how individual umpires influence their games. Look for key performance stats like batting averages or percentages for strikeouts, walks, and slugging.
Expert Tip: Umpires and Run Totals
When betting on run totals, consider the average runs scored in games under a specific umpire. Some umpires see a difference of more than one run per game, which can greatly impact the outcome of a bet on run totals.
Take Advantage of “First 5 Inning” Betting Lines
Betting on the first five innings reduces the variables you need to consider before betting. Starting pitchers average just over 5 innings per start, simplifying the analysis of pitching matchups. 5-inning betting lines focus exclusively on the score at the end of the first five innings. These lines provide great value for bettors who want to focus on starting pitcher matchups without worrying about bullpen performance or late-game scoring.
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Advanced Betting Strategies for the MLB
Once you’ve mastered the basics of betting on the MLB, it’s time for a more detailed look at how sharp baseball bettors win. The advanced wagering strategies for baseball require a more nuanced analysis of various MLB stats and trends.
Statistical Analysis (Players and Teams)
The MLB provides incredibly advanced statistics about individual and team matchups. Learning how to interpret advanced stats can improve the accuracy of your bets. If a pitcher struggles against a certain team or even a few batters, this can help you predict a higher-scoring game or place a bet on the other. These types of stats help to make better betting decisions.
Hedging your MLB Bets
Hedging your bets involves placing multiple bets to secure a profit, even if your initial bet loses. This tactic increases the initial cost of your wagers, but it’s often worth it to protect yourself against greater losses.
Leverage Live Betting
Live betting happens during an MLB game, with lines changing from pitch to pitch depending on the result of each play. These betting opportunities often provide better payouts compared to pre-game lines. Shop around for lines to make watching the game more exciting.
Key Takeaways for Your MLB Betting Strategy
Our MLB betting strategy tips and tricks can help you increase the value of your baseball wagers and chances to win. Newcomers should start with basic betting types like totals and moneylines. This provides a strong foundation for more advanced strategies like underdog betting.
We’ve also outlined strategies to help baseball fans discover methods that pro bettors use. Get better value with live MLB betting, or hedge your bets to minimize potential losses. There’s always more to learn. Don’t hesitate to learn more and better understand how to bet on baseball.
