Best Football Betting Strategies for the NFL
In This NFL Betting Strategy Guide:
Basic NFL Betting Strategies
Even the best strategies for betting on football don’t guarantee a perfect win rate. With that said, using a smart betting strategy for NFL handicapping does increase your chances of winning. To get the best value on your NFL betting bankroll, here are five NFL betting strategies you can start using right away:
#1 NFL Betting Strategy — Manage Your Bankroll
Bankroll management is the cornerstone of any winning football betting strategy. It’s important to note that the break-even point for NFL bets against the spread (ATS) on a standard -110 line is just 52.38%. This means that bettors who manage to pick 53–55% ATS winners are profitable in the long run.
This also means that even profitable NFL sports bettors lose 45–48% of the time, which makes losing streaks during a long season inevitable. Bettors who are constantly putting huge portions of their bankroll on the line will eventually be wiped out by a run of bad luck. However, wise football bettors (like yourself) who only risk 2–5% of their total bankroll on any one game can withstand losing streaks. Even if a game looks like a “lock,” don’t risk more than 5% of your bankroll on it.
Unit Strategy
A popular bankroll management strategy is looking at your bankroll in terms of units. To achieve this, split your betting budget into a set number of units you’ll use to wager — for example, a unit could total to 5% of your total betting budget. If you have $1,000 dedicated to betting on the NFL season, a 5% unit would be $50. To stay consistent, you should be wary of going over the unit size on one single bet, no matter what the odds are. Using a unit system will help simplify your NFL bankroll management strategy and help you plan how many units you want to bet in a week. Everygame offers welcome bonuses for deposits as small as $20, so don’t feel like you need to start betting with $1000 in the bank. Take it slow, and find out what works best for you.#2 NFL Betting Strategy — Bet With Your Research, Not With Your Heart
Football betters who bet based on gut feelings tend to be unsuccessful. Rather than relying on actual data, they make NFL betting decisions based on favorite teams, players, or SportsCenter highlights. Even if your team is one of the most popular fanbases in the NFL, that shouldn’t guide your NFL betting strategy.
Doing research before placing your bets is crucial. This includes player and team stats, injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, league trends, current form, and more. It’s normal to have an early lean on games you see on the schedule, but be sure to vet your assumptions with research before betting.
Fortunately, there are some great resources out there that do a lot of the heavy lifting for you, like our Free NFL Picks and Predictions page.
#3 NFL Betting Strategy — Understand Betting Types
Understanding betting types is crucial to your NFL wagering success, as you can figure out which is best to choose, and which to avoid. For example, moneylines can be more profitable than parlays, despite parlays offering larger payouts. Parlays are more risky because you need all your games to hit the correct outcome, but with single-bet moneylines, you only need one.
Here are the most popular forms of NFL bet types to choose from:
- Moneyline — A straight bet on which team will win.
- Spread — Bet with a points handicap to make both sides even.
- Totals — Betting on a game’s total number of points to go over or under a posted total.
- Props — Bets on player or game propositions independent of the final score.
- Parlays — Combining multiple bets into one wager for higher risk and payouts.
- Teasers — The same as parlays, but with points added to your selections.
- Futures — Wagers on events that will settle in the future, like the Super Bowl.
Avoid Parlays and Teasers
In general, try to stay away from parlays and teasers when football betting. If you go 3–1 while betting $11 to win $10 on four different NFL games, that’s a profit of $19. Those same four games in a $10 parlay would result in a $10 loss. Parlays and teasers are fun, but they make sustained winning much tougher.#4 NFL Betting Strategy — Keep Track of Your NFL Bets
Keeping track of what’s happening with your NFL bets is a vital aspect of an NFL betting strategy. You can monitor this manually with a spreadsheet, or check out your past transactions in your sportsbook.
Not doing so leaves a lot of valuable data untapped. Tracking the team or player, bet type, bet size, odds, outcome, and profit/loss has some useful benefits:
- A clearer view of bet types and teams you have the most (and least) success betting on.
- Identifying winning or losing habits and making adjustments accordingly.
- Makes you far less likely to bet recklessly since you’re keeping track.
These advantages make it well worth the time and effort it takes to track your football bets. You’ll be able to take advantage of trends, not only in the NFL, but in how you bet. If you see yourself making the same mistake each week, you can see it in the tracking and avoid it.
#5 NFL Betting Strategy — Shop around for the Best Odds
When you purchase one of your favorite products on sale, you immediately notice the difference at the register. Yet, when it comes to line shopping across NFL sportsbooks, many bettors don’t realize how much value they leave on the table.
Say you want to bet $55 to win $50 on the New York Jets as 4-point favorites, but you find them at another sportsbook as 3.5-point favorites. If the Jets had won the game 24–20, it would have been a push with no profit on the -4.0 line. However, it would be a $50 win if you had bet it at -3.5 on a different sportsbook.
Consider the difference between betting $150 to win $100 at -150, versus wagering $140 to win $100 at -140 on the moneyline. That $10 you save on a loss may not seem like much at a glance, but if you’re consistently getting the best price, small improvements in profits and losses add up quickly.
#6 NFL Betting Strategy — Understanding How Weather Conditions Can Affect the Odds
As most NFL stadiums are outdoor venues, paying attention to weather conditions, especially as the season gets into the colder months of December and January is especially important. If an NFL playoff game in Green Bay or Buffalo is being played in the middle of a blizzard, the game plans for both teams will definitely need to adjust.
Of course, any significant weather pattern could throw a wrench into how a team plans their offense. Intense rain, snow, cold, heat, or wind can all play an affect. Of those, wind, is typically the most significant weather condition to monitor on a week-to-week basis.
Even minor increases in wind gusts can have an affect. But typically, winds in the 15-25 mph range can drastically affect how a quarterback throws the ball or how far a kicker can attempt a field goal.
#7 NFL Betting Strategy — Line Movement and When To Bet
NFL betting lines are constantly moving. Look-ahead lines for the week(s) ahead can be posted well in advance at some of the top football sportsbooks. These can be great opportunities to lock in the best price and odds on a bet you like before markets adjust as the game gets closer to kick-off.
In the days leading up to an NFL game, odds for the spread, total, moneyline, and prop bets will all adjust. As previously discussed, weather and injuries can play a part in line movement. If you do your research early and get ahead of the rest of the betting market, you can often secure better value for your bets.
Of course, using a wait and see approach to get the most up-to-date information prior to kick-off before betting, also has its benefits.
Remember that most of the public money will start to pour in the day before, day of, and even in the hours before a big primetime game. By monitoring public betting splits, you can gauge how the market is moving and choose to either fade or follow the major line moves.
Easy NFL Betting Tips for Beginners
The best strategies to bet on football with are multi-layered. By combining these foundational strategies with the tips below, you can take your profit potential even further:
Pay Attention to Trends and Divisional Matchups
Not all trends carry the same weight. For instance, how the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys performed over their last five meetings doesn’t matter much. These teams see each other every four years, and there is a lot of roster turnover between those meetings. Older trends tend to carry less importance than recent ones.
For instance, the Dolphins clashing twice a year against a division rival like the New England Patriots could indicate what to expect from their next meeting. Divisional matchups are yearly rivalries where relevant trends can be analyzed from multiple meetings over recent seasons.
Similarly, how a team trends with spreads and totals is worth paying attention to. Another important example is how a team plays at home or on the road.
Analyzing more recent trends should be part of your weekly handicapping process, helping you take note of trends you find the most success with.
Keep an Eye on the Injury Report
When a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is hurt, that will be top sports news. But what about an injury to the team’s backup running back, who plays a vital role in short-distance situations? How about a defensive lineman that consistently puts pressure on opposing quarterbacks? Or, a blocking tight end that buys his quarterback time to throw?
These injuries may not be breaking news, but they can have a major impact on the outcome of the game or the season. Closely monitor the injury reports of teams you are betting on, and be sure to consider these absences’ potential impact on the game.
Consider Home Field Advantage
In the 17 NFL seasons from 2002 to 2018, home teams won 56% or more of the games played in all but two seasons, per the Washington Post. Consistent success from home teams across the board has declined, partly due to bad team performances and dwindling support at home. That said, top teams still play better at home than on the road.
While home-field advantage does play a role in the outcome of NFL games, the advantage is often baked into the spread. A game that might be a pick’em on a neutral field will usually list the home team as a 3-point favorite. This means there may be value in strong road teams sometimes, while an elite home team is undervalued in others. Instead of looking for a one-size-fits-all rule, study how your preferred teams tend to play at home and on the road.
Advanced Tips for Betting on the NFL
Once you’ve explored NFL betting and feel comfortable making your own, smart wagers, consider a few of these suggestions to revamp your strategy.
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Due to the nature of scoring in the NFL, the numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 are all relevant. Three and seven are often referred to as “key numbers,” given how frequently a field goal or a touchdown decides a game. From 2000 through 2023, these six numbers represented the most common final score margins, with three being the highest at over 15% of all games, and seven coming in at 9%, per Cleanup Hitter.
These numbers are important to keep in mind when analyzing spreads. Certain numbers and line movements carry a lot more weight than others. For example, moving from -2.5 to -3.5 or from -6.5 to -7.5 is pretty significant, given how many games are decided by three and seven points.
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The best NFL betting strategy usually includes a fair share of underdogs. Bettors shouldn’t bet on underdogs just because, just as they shouldn’t bet on home teams or any other all-encompassing rule. It’s worth noting, however, that underdogs do tend to have more betting value than favorites do.
The reason is simple — the betting public loves to wager on favorites. Consistently winning teams like the Kansas City Chiefs (with star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce) will generate tons of betting interest. Similarly, casual fans will lean toward betting against teams with bad records.
Sportsbooks adjust their lines to mitigate risk, giving sharp bettors added incentive and extra value to bet on the underdog. With the proper research, you can make a larger profit by picking underdogs, but remember, it comes with a bigger risk. Even if your underdog picks don’t always win, you’ll often be getting them at the right price.
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Historically, brick-and-mortar sportsbooks have very limited options for live betting on NFL games. Conversely, all the top NFL sportsbooks let you place various live bets all game long from their website or mobile app. Bovada specifically has some incredible tools for live bettors, with constantly updating lines and competitive odds.
Live betting gives knowledgeable football fans a lot of extra power to make profitable NFL bets. Let’s say you find yourself calling out what the next play will be during a game, or you sense the momentum shifting. Thanks to live betting, you can actually bet on hunches like these.
Sharp NFL bettors can also often find value in going against the grain. The live betting market tends to overreact on things like betting the OVER after both teams score early, or betting on the favorite if they get out to a big lead. If you anticipate that defensive adjustments will be made, you may find profitable plays on the UNDER, or the underdog.
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