NHL Betting Strategy Guide
Discover effective NHL betting strategies to beat the bookies. Whether you’re a rookie or seasoned bettor, you can find tons of pointers here to up your hockey betting game.
In this guide we give a rundown of NHL bets, share loads of betting tips, and show where you can find the best NHL odds. On top of that, we reveal our top-rated site for hockey betting newbies.
NHL Betting Strategy
A lot of time and effort goes into being a successful hockey bettor, so it’s important to get the basics right at the beginning. Let’s start by covering the fundamentals of NHL betting strategy. The following seven tips will stand you in good stead for the journey ahead.
1. Shop for the Best Odds
NHL odds vary between online sportsbooks. Every bookmaker offers slightly different odds, so we recommend shopping around to find the top prices. Once you’ve settled on a wager, check multiple betting sites to get the best possible odds for your bet. Even the smallest price variance can make a big difference to your potential payout.
2. Analyze Team Performance and Stats
Statistics play a central role in modern-day hockey. NHL teams utilize data to help them gain an edge, and bettors can do the same. There are tons of useful websites and apps that share stats regarding form, goals, assists, and many other metrics. You can use these numbers to aid your wagers.
Example: A team coming off five straight wins is about to face a team on a seven-game losing streak. The form guide indicates that one team is in a much better state than the other. You can also consider offensive/defensive stats. Looking at which teams score/concede the most goals will only enhance your chances of success.
3. Calculate Implied Probability
Understanding implied probability and how to read betting odds is crucial for all sports bettors, not just NHL bettors. Implied probability refers to the likelihood of a betting outcome. This can be determined by using a formula to convert traditional odds into a percentage.
Example: The table below shows you how sportsbooks can display odds as percentages. The prices are fictitious, but let’s pretend that they’re for the winner of the Art Ross Trophy, which is awarded to the player who scores the most points in a season.
| Players | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | -1200 | 92.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | -400 | 80.0% |
| David Pastrnak | +172 | 36.7% |
| Leon Draisaitl | +540 | 15.6% |
| William Nylander | +900 | 10.0% |
| J. T. Miller | +1200 | 7.7% |
Connor McDavid’s odds of -1200 give him a 92.3% chance of winning the award. At the opposite end of the spectrum, J. T. Miller’s odds of +1200 give him a 7.7% chance of winning. The implied probability decreases as the odds increase.
Expert Tip
Long lists of odds can be confusing at times. Calculating implied probability can make things easier, giving us a clearer picture of how the bookies view a certain situation. Thankfully, there are lots of implied probability calculators online. To find out a percentage, all you need to do is enter the odds.
4. Look for Value
Even the best NHL betting tips are worthless if you’re not prepared to look for value. One of the secrets to enjoying long-term success in sports betting is having the ability to identify wagers that offer genuine value. These may not be the most obvious or safest bets, but they will deliver a consistent profit.
This can involve avoiding heavy favorites with low odds, backing underdogs in good form, and exploring niche markets to target unique wagers. These are the bets that will increase your return on investment and help you beat the bookies eventually.
Expert Tip
There are three main odds formats: American, decimal, and fractional. American odds display as a positive (+) or negative (-) number, and are based on either risking or winning a $100 bet. Here’s what each format looks like:
- American: -200
- Decimal: 50
- Fractional: 1/2
Most online sportsbooks allow you to customize the odds format, enabling you to switch between the three options. Be sure to keep this in mind when browsing NHL odds.
5. Manage Your Bankroll
You can learn about all the best NHL betting strategies, but if you don’t know about bankroll management in sports betting, you won’t get very far. Bankroll management involves setting aside an initial sum of money, placing sensible wagers, and only betting what you can afford to lose.
Example: Let’s say that you create a $500 bankroll before the start of the next NHL season. It wouldn’t be wise to place five $100 wagers on the first round of games. Instead, we would encourage you to begin with a few $10-$25 wagers to limit your potential losses. Once you get to grips with bankroll management, you can increase your stakes.
6. Keep Records
Keeping records of your NHL bets will help you track your spending, winnings, losses, and other important factors. You can do this by creating a spreadsheet, making notes in a journal, or checking your sportsbook betting history online.
Records can help you to identify profitable betting patterns and spot strengths/weaknesses in your NHL betting strategy. Whether you’re an experienced hockey bettor or a total newbie, keeping track of your wagers will only benefit you and your bankroll.
7. Be Flexible
Don’t just bet on the same teams and markets every single time. Instead, we encourage you to explore a wide variety of NHL wagers. The more flexible you are, the more likely you will be to find value bets on a consistent basis.
Reading NHL Odds and Betting Lines
Knowing exactly how to bet on hockey is great, but you also need to understand how to read NHL odds and betting lines as well. In this section, we cover the most common NHL bet types, provide examples of how to read the odds, and share a couple of expert tips along the way.
Moneyline
The moneyline betting market enables you to predict the winner of a game. Sportsbooks will give a price to each team before the game takes place. All you need to do is assess the odds and pick a team to win. This is how moneyline odds display:
- Toronto Maple Leafs: +115
- Boston Bruins: -135
Puck Line
The puck line is essentially hockey’s version of point spread betting. This market levels the playing field from a betting perspective, giving a virtual handicap to the favorite and a virtual head start to the underdog. Typically, the puck line is -1.5 goals for the favorite and +1.5 goals for the underdog, as shown below:
- New York Islanders (+1.5): -130
- Carolina Hurricanes (-1.5): +110
Expert Tip
The puck line presents great value if you want to bet on a heavy favorite with low moneyline odds. Big NHL favorites frequently win by two or more goals, so backing them with an initial -1.5 deficit can often be very beneficial.
Game Total
As the name suggests, the game total market gives you the chance to predict the total number of goals scored in a game. The line for most NHL games is 5.5 goals, but this can vary depending on the matchup. This is what game total lines look like:
- Over 5.5 Goals: -122
- Under 5.5 Goals: +102
Expert Tip
If you’re betting on the game total, be sure to analyze the scoring trends of both teams. Two offensively minded teams will likely serve up plenty of goals between them. By contrast, two defensively adept teams will likely produce a low-scoring contest.
Player Props
NHL player props betting allow you to predict how many points, assists, shots on goal, power play points, blocked shots, or saves a player will register in a game. Different sportsbooks allow you to wager on different metrics, with the odds displayed like this:
- Auston Matthews Over 1.5 Points: +130
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 Points: -166
Find the Best NHL Odds and Betting Lines
Now that you’re familiar with the ins and outs of NHL betting strategy, let’s look at where to find the best odds and lines.
Online Sportsbooks
Naturally, online sportsbooks are among the best places to find NHL odds and lines. BetOnline is one of our top-rated betting sites thanks to its wide range of hockey betting options. BetOnline offers pre-game lines, player props, futures, and even live NHL odds.
Sports Media Sites
All the top sports media sites present NHL odds and lines, in addition to analysis and picks. Head to The Sports Geek’s picks section to discover our team’s latest NHL picks.
NHL Apps
The number of people partaking in mobile betting is at an all-time high. Accordingly, there are tons of apps that deliver NHL odds and lines straight to your mobile or tablet.
Online Forums
There is no shortage of online sports forums for NHL fans and bettors. These platforms enable you to discuss the latest odds with fellow hockey enthusiasts. Popular forums such as Reddit and Quora have hundreds of thousands of monthly users, but there are also smaller forums dedicated to the NHL.
Social Media and Influencers
We live in the age of social media, so why not make the most of the NHL betting tips in this space? Browse The Sport’s Geeks official Twitter and Instagram pages to stay up to date with the latest NHL odds, news and analysis.
Expert Tip:
Certain social media accounts and influencers can present biased NHL opinions based on who they support. Be sure to check the validity of an account before you follow it, and only take advice from experts in the field.
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Advanced Betting Strategy for the NHL
If you’ve already mastered basic NHL betting strategies, here you can dive into our tips and strategies for advanced hockey bettors.
Goalie Analysis
Many NHL bettors focus solely on offensive players and forget about goaltenders. It is important to remember that goalies can have an impact on the outcome of a hockey game.
Utilizing goalie stats such as save percentages, expected goals against, and goals saved above expected can take your NHL betting to the next level.
Special Teams Performance
In hockey, special teams are combinations of players with specific responsibilities that play during power plays. Teams deploy defensive special teams to kill penalties on the clock, and offensive special teams to score goals.
You can analyze the strengths and weaknesses of special teams to aid your NHL wagers. The NHL.com stats page is a brilliant resource for investigating each teams net power play percentages.
Advanced Analytics
Advanced statistics go beyond traditional metrics such as goals, assists, and shots. They offer a more detailed insight into hockey, giving NHL bettors more information to work with.
Here are some of the most popular advanced hockey metrics:
- Corsi (CF/CA)
- Fenwick (FF/FA)
- Expected Goals (xGF/xGA)
Scheduling and Travel
NHL teams travel around 50,000 miles each season. The league’s longest road trip is more than 3,000 miles between the Boston Bruins’ TD Garden and the Seattle Kraken’s Climate Pledge Arena.
Teams frequently cross multiple time zones, which can cause player fatigue. Targeting teams that have traveled a long way can often be a smart move.
Injury Reports
Injuries to key players can have a big impact on the outcome of an NHL game. If a team’s star defenseman is missing, the odds of that team winning will likely increase. The more injuries a team has, the more they will struggle to hit their top performance level.
We suggest checking NHL injury reports regularly to stay up to date with the latest team news.
Line Movement Analysis
Line movement occurs when betting lines such as moneylines, spreads, and totals shift due to public wagering patterns. If more money is being wagered on one side, sportsbooks will adjust their odds to balance the betting.
NHL bettors can find extra value by keeping an eye on moving lines and taking advantage of fluctuating odds.
Live Betting Strategies
If you want to take your NHL betting strategy to another level, you could consider exploring in-play strategies. There are dozens of live hockey markets available, including next team to score, next player to score, and next player to register a shot on goal.
In-play odds are usually very attractive, but live betting markets can be volatile.
Weathering the Variance
Variance refers to the degree of risk or uncertainty attached to a bet. High-risk NHL betting strategies will typically produce erratic results and fluctuating profits. By contrast, low-risk hockey betting strategies tend to produce slower and steadier profits.
Weathering the variance can be profitable over time, but you need to be prepared to accept losses to enjoy the wins.
Utilizing Prop Bets
Lately, props have become a huge part of the NHL betting world. From points and assists to shots on goal and saves, there are tons of player props to choose from.
Prop bets regularly offer greater value than traditional markets, so spending some time exploring props before each game can be extremely beneficial.
NHL Betting Strategy: Key Takeaways
The NHL betting strategies in this guide will help you gain an edge over the bookies. Rookies should follow the basics we’ve outlined, like bankroll management, analyzing stats, and shopping for the best odds. To take your NHL bets to the next level, seasoned bettors can look to the advanced strategies such as line movements and weathering the variance.
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