Best NHL Betting Strategies: Hockey Betting Tips
NHL Betting Strategies
A lot of time and effort goes into being a successful hockey bettor, so it’s important to get the basics right. We’ll start by covering the fundamentals of forming an effective NHL betting strategy. The following seven tips will provide a solid foundation for you to add in more advanced strategies when you’re prepared.
1. Shop for the Best Hockey Odds
Odds will vary between online NHL sportsbooks. Every bookmaker offers slightly different odds, so we recommend shopping around to find the top prices. Once you’ve settled on a wager, check multiple betting sites to get the best possible odds for your bet. Even the smallest price variance can make a big difference to your potential payout.
2. Analyze Team Performance and Stats
Statistics play a central role in modern-day hockey and should be incorporated into your NHL betting systems. NHL teams utilize data to help them gain an edge, and bettors can do the same. There are tons of useful websites and apps that share stats regarding form, goals, assists, and many other metrics. You can use these numbers to aid your wagers.
Example: A team coming off five straight wins is about to face a team on a seven-game losing streak. The form guide indicates that one team is in a much better state than the other. You can also consider offensive/defensive stats. Looking at which teams score/concede the most goals will only enhance your chances of success.
3. Calculate Implied Probability
Understanding implied probability and how to read betting odds is crucial for all sports bettors, not just NHL bettors. Implied probability refers to the likelihood of a betting outcome. This can be determined by using a formula to convert traditional odds into a percentage.
Example: The table below shows you how sportsbooks can display NHL odds as percentages. The prices below are fictitious, but this is a likely table for the expected winner of the Art Ross Trophy, which is awarded to the player who scores the most points in a season.
| Players | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | -1200 | 92.3% |
| Nikita Kucherov | -400 | 80.0% |
| David Pastrnak | +172 | 36.7% |
| Leon Draisaitl | +540 | 15.6% |
| William Nylander | +900 | 10.0% |
| J. T. Miller | +1200 | 7.7% |
Connor McDavid’s odds of -1200 give him a 92.3% chance of winning the award. At the opposite end of the spectrum, J. T. Miller’s odds of +1200 give him a 7.7% chance of winning. The implied probability decreases as the odds increase.
Expert Tip
Long lists of odds can be confusing at times. Calculating implied probability can make things easier, giving us a clearer picture of how the bookies view a certain situation. Thankfully, there are lots of implied probability calculators online. To find out a percentage, all you need to do is enter the odds.
4. Look for NHL Betting Value
Even the best NHL betting systems are worthless if you’re not prepared to look for value. One of the secrets to enjoying long-term success in sports betting is having the ability to identify wagers that offer genuine betting value. These may not be the most obvious or safest bets, but they will deliver a consistent profit.
This can involve avoiding heavy favorites with low odds, backing underdogs in good form, and exploring niche markets like puck lines to target unique wagers. These are the bets that will increase your return on investment and help you beat the bookies eventually.
Expert Tip
There are three main odds formats: American, Decimal, and Fractional. American odds display as a positive (+) or negative (-) number, and are based on either risking or winning a $100 bet. Here’s what each format looks like:
- American: -200
- Decimal: 50
- Fractional: 1/2
Most online sportsbooks allow you to customize the odds format, enabling you to switch between the three options. Be sure to keep this in mind when browsing NHL odds.
5. Manage Your NHL Bankroll
You can learn about all the best NHL betting strategies, but if you don’t know about bankroll management in sports betting, you won’t get very far. Bankroll management involves setting aside an initial sum of money, placing sensible wagers, and only betting what you can afford to lose.
Example: You create a $500 bankroll before the start of the next NHL season. It wouldn’t be wise to place five $100 wagers on the first round of games. Instead, we would encourage you to begin with a few $10-$25 wagers to limit your potential losses. Once you get to grips with bankroll management, you can increase your stakes.
6. Keep Records
Keeping records of your NHL bets will help you track your spending, winnings, losses, and other important factors. You can do this by creating a spreadsheet, making notes in a journal, or checking your sportsbook betting history online.
Records can help you to identify profitable betting patterns and spot strengths/weaknesses in your NHL betting strategy. Whether you’re an experienced hockey bettor or a total newbie, keeping track of your wagers will only benefit you and your bankroll.
7. Be Flexible
Don’t just bet on the same teams and markets every single time. Instead, we encourage you to explore a wide variety of NHL wagers. The more flexible you are, the more likely you will be to find value bets on a consistent basis and the best NHL betting strategy for you.
Advanced NHL Betting Strategies
If you’ve already mastered basic NHL betting strategies, here you can dive into our tips and strategies for advanced hockey bettors.
Goalie Analysis
Many NHL bettors focus solely on offensive players and forget about goaltenders when creating their hockey betting strategy. It is important to remember that goalies can have an impact on the outcome of a hockey game.
Utilizing goalie stats such as save percentages, expected goals against, and goals saved above expected can take your NHL betting to the next level. Teams who face off against elite goalies will see a reduction in scoring opportunities, contributing to a lower amount of goals, which can affect player props, the puck line, and over/unders.
Special Teams Performance
In hockey, special teams are combinations of players with specific responsibilities that play during power plays. Teams deploy defensive special teams to kill penalties on the clock, and offensive special teams to score goals.
More often than not, these performances will determine the outcome of a game, as mismatched special teams will exploit the other and earn a higher amount of goals/defensive stops.
You can analyze the strengths and weaknesses of special teams to aid your NHL wagers. The NHL.com stats page is a solid resource for investigating each teams net power play percentages.
Other resources like Stats Muse, track NHL league average scoring trends. In 2024-25, while the average goals per game dipped to 3.01, power play efficiency reached 21.64%, the highest rate since 1985-86, and the ninth-highest mark in league history. This efficiency indicates there is value in power play-specific bets throughout the season.
Advanced Analytics
Advanced statistics go beyond traditional metrics such as goals, assists, and shots. They offer a more detailed insight into hockey, giving NHL bettors more information to work with.
Here are some of the most popular advanced hockey metrics:
- Corsi (CF/CA)
- Measures all shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots, and blocked shots) for and against a team while at even strength. It’s widely used as a proxy for puck possession and territorial control. Teams with strong Corsi numbers tend to drive play more consistently.
- Fenwick (FF/FA)
- Similar to Corsi but removes blocked shots, offering a slightly cleaner look at offensive pressure. Fenwick can be especially useful for evaluating teams that generate quality looks rather than volume alone.
- Expected Goals (xGF/xGA)
- Assigns a probability to each shot based on factors like location, angle, and shot type. This metric helps bettors determine whether a team’s scoring success is sustainable or driven by luck.
Advanced stats are best used to identifty mispriced teams before sportsbooks adjust their lines. For example, a team losing games depsite strong xG numbers may be undervalued, while a winning team with poor underlying metrics could be overvalued.
Scheduling and Travel
NHL teams travel around 50,000 miles each season. The league’s longest road trip is more than 3,000 miles between the Boston Bruins’ TD Garden and the Seattle Kraken’s Climate Pledge Arena.
Teams frequently cross multiple time zones, which can cause player fatigue. Targeting teams that have traveled a long way can often be a smart move.
Injury Reports
Injuries to key players can have a big impact on the outcome of an NHL game. If a team’s star defenseman is missing, the odds of that team winning will likely increase. The more injuries a team has, the more they will struggle to hit their top performance level.
We suggest checking NHL injury reports regularly to stay up to date with the latest team news.
NHL Line Movement Analysis
Line movement occurs when betting lines such as moneylines, spreads, and totals shift due to public wagering patterns in hockey. If more money is being wagered on one side, sportsbooks will adjust their odds to balance the betting.
Monitoring line movement is one of the best NHL betting systems to adopt into your routine. NHL bettors can find extra value by keeping an eye on moving lines and taking advantage of fluctuating odds.
Keep in mind this can vary by how local bettors are betting on their favorite teams too. Sportsbooks that are popular in one state, may take in more money on local teams. So if you’re betting on hockey in New York, you may find a better price on the hometown Rangers or Islanders at site that is less popular with New Yorkers.
NHL Live Betting Strategies
If you want to take your NHL betting strategy to another level, you could consider exploring in-play strategies. There are dozens of live hockey markets available, including next team to score, next player to score, and next player to register a shot on goal.
In-play odds are usually very attractive, but live betting markets can be volatile. With so many options to choose from, make sure to be selective and wait for the right price before locking in your wager. Watching a game and paying attention to the ebbs and flows of a matchup can be instrumental in striking at the right time — don’t doubt your gut when you see a team that looks like it’s fading.
Weathering the Variance
Variance refers to the degree of risk or uncertainty attached to a bet. High-risk NHL betting strategies will typically produce erratic results and fluctuating profits. By contrast, low-risk hockey betting strategies tend to produce slower and steadier profits.
Weathering the variance can be profitable over time, but you need to be prepared to accept losses to enjoy the wins.
Finding the Best NHL Odds
Now that you’re familiar with the ins and outs of key NHL betting strategies, let’s look at where to find the best odds and lines.
Online Sportsbooks
Naturally, online sportsbooks are among the best places to find NHL odds and lines. You can browse different odds from our top recommended hockey sportsbooks to find who is offering the best value for each wager. It’s important to compare odds constantly, as there is no downside to making wagers on multiple accounts.
Sports Media Sites
All the top sports media sites present NHL odds and lines, in addition to analysis and picks. Head to The Sports Geek’s picks section to discover our team’s latest NHL picks.
NHL Betting Apps
The number of people partaking in mobile betting is at an all-time high. Accordingly, there are tons of apps that deliver NHL odds and lines straight to your mobile or tablet.
Online Forums
There is no shortage of online sports forums for NHL fans and bettors. These platforms enable you to discuss the latest odds with fellow hockey enthusiasts. Popular forums such as Reddit and Quora have hundreds of thousands of monthly users, but there are also smaller forums dedicated to the NHL.
Social Media and Influencers
We live in the age of social media, so why not make the most of the NHL betting tips in this space? You can browse our own social media to keep updated: X (Twitter) and Instagram.
Our writers also follow:
Jason La Canfora (Popular Betting Analyst)
Mike Johnson (Former NHL player)Expert Tip:
Certain social media accounts and influencers can present biased NHL opinions based on who they support. Be sure to check the validity of an account before you follow it, and only take advice from experts in the field.
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What Is the Best NHL Betting Strategy?
The best NHL betting strategy depends on your betting goals and your level of hockey betting experience. We recommend slowly incorporating all of our top tips into your overall betting strategy. If we had to pick, however, we would highlight the analysis of team performance and stats, as well as line shopping for value.
Why Are These The Best NHL Betting Strategies?
By analyzing the performance and stats you are up-to-date on teams and players that can make a difference – this will help you pick the better teams or players. Once you have picked the teams/players, you can now shop around to see which sportsbook has the better odds and get the best value out of each bet you place. Combining these two NHL strategies will let you place bets in the smartest and most profitable ways.
However, starting with small bets and planning how much of your bankroll you’re willing to commit to NHL betting is also good start. Placing a small percentage (1-3%) of your bankroll on each bet is a good place to start.
NHL Betting Strategy: Key Takeaways
The NHL betting strategies in this guide will help you gain an edge over the bookies. Rookies should follow the basics we’ve outlined, like bankroll management, analyzing stats, and shopping for the best odds. To take your NHL bets to the next level, seasoned bettors can look to the advanced strategies such as line movements and weathering the variance.
If you’d like to begin implementing these strategies, we would recommend you begin with simple research, such as team statistics and head-to-head matchups. Afterward, you can move on to deeper analysis and begin shopping around different sportsbooks for the best value.
NHL Betting Strategies FAQ
Value bets come from identifying odds that underestimate a team’s true chance of winning. Compare implied probability from the odds to your own assessment using stats like expected goals (xG), goalie performance, and matchup history.
NHL favorites win roughly 55–60% of the time, depending on the season and odds range. Because hockey has high variance and low scoring, underdogs win more often than in sports like basketball or football.
The starting goalie is one of the most important factors in NHL betting. Elite or struggling goaltenders can swing win probability significantly, especially in low-total games or tight matchups.
Yes, teams on back-to-back games often show reduced performance, particularly when travel is involved. Fatigue can impact defensive play, goalie sharpness, and late-game execution.
Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage chance of winning. If your projected probability is higher than the implied probability, the bet may offer positive expected value.
The most important NHL betting strategy is selecting bets for value, not “winners”. Consistently targeting mispriced odds, managing bankroll, and avoiding emotional bets is what separates profitable bettors from casual ones.
